Baldwin County State Senate District 32:
Sizing up McKinney, Pittman
in Baldwin GOP senate runoff
(1st of 3)
By Chip Drago
Mobile Bay Times
Then there were two.
As expected, with five candidates, all of whom possessed varying degrees of political legitimacy, the Republican primary in the special election to fill the Baldwin County state Senate District 32 seat led to a runoff.
That the two left standing are south Baldwin real estate executive Randy McKinney and Eastern Shore businessman Trip Pittman is no surprise, at least not to Mobile Bay Times' readers who had the advantage of the July 11 analysis.
Combining to draw about two-thirds of the vote together -- McKinney with 37 percent and Pittman with almost 30 percent -- the remaining contenders last week eliminated Baldwin County Commissioner David Ed Bishop, former state Sen. Albert Lipscomb and GOP county chairman Don McGriff.
McKinney, a second time aspirant for the office, led the way with 5,562 votes. In his first try for elective office, Pittman got 4,568 votes for the runner-up position and the chance to fight on.
The turnout of 15,431 voters of the district's 87,179 registered voters represented participation of less than 18 percent.
Bishop drew 2,242 votes to finish third, with Lipscomb nipping at this heels in fourth with 2,209 votes. McGriff polled 850 votes.
McKinney and Pittman will face off on Sept. 11 to determine the GOP champion and a slot on the ballot Oct. 16 against Democratic nominee A.J. Cooper, an experienced politician who was once mayor of Prichard and now has a law practice on the Eastern Shore.
The winner will succeed Bradley Byrne in the state Senate. Byrne stepped down to take over as chancellor of Alabama's two-year college system.
Again, the Mobile Bay Times turns to its brigade of local, area and state political sources for analysis and insight into the campaign's remaining four weeks:
"I think Pittman can win and is, in fact, in a good position to do so. But McKinney will likely have more money and more free press coming as (the state school board) address(es) this double dipping issue ...
It all comes down to who votes. Pittman will run strong on the Eastern Shore... McKinney will run strong in the southern end of the County as he did 5 years ago.
The outcome will be decided by the central and northern parts of the county, and voter turn out. I think it is a toss up, but the edge probably goes to McKinney. No (single) issue, per se, will control."
-- PRR,
veteran Baldwin GOP official
"The race is, of course, about turnout and I think that benefits McKinney. He has run before and has an organization in place.
One advantage that McKinney has is when you look at his strongest areas they are in areas where most people work and live in the same towns -- Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Robertsdale. The same thing can't be said for Pittman and the Eastern Shore, where most people still work in Mobile and with school being back in session it makes a difference in a very low turn out race.
I think with McKinney's organization it will be easier getting his people to the polls then it will be for Pittman. I think that Randy picks up most of Lipscomb's votes while the two split Bishop's and McGriff's.
While we live in the 21st century, it still helps to be a Southern Baptist and this is where McKinney has an advantage with Lipscomb's voters and at least a portion of Bishop's and McGriff's voters.
If I were advising Pittman, I would tell him to concentrate on the Eastern Shore and Central Baldwin. If he can win those areas big, he has a shot. If he fails to get his people to turn out big, then it is all over for him. He needs a big regional issue that is of particular interest on the Eastern Shore and in Central Baldwin. In Gulf Shores and Orange Beach, Randy is so strong that the only thing I would spend time on is getting my known voters out. If Pittman falls into the trap of working too much in South Baldwin, he neglects his core voters on the Eastern Shore and will get whacked. Randy needs to work to solidify his base in South Baldwin while working hard to identify the Lipscomb voters and get them to the polls. At this point, it is identifying those that will and could go your way and get them to the polls.
I believe this is McKinney's time and I think he wins it in a low turnout election. I think 12 percent turnout with a 53 percent win by McKinney."
-- JAC
Baldwin native and former GOP candidate
"Understand, as a way of disclosure, I support McKinney. Trip is also a friend and one I wish well in the future.
Can Pittman overcome McKinney's lead? What counsel would you give him toward that end?
......yes, continue what he is doing. He and McKinney have the same yet reverse situations to overcome. Baldwin County is very territorial. Up for grabs is Bay Minette and mid-(Hwy.) 59 Corridor. Trip needs to glad hand and listen more than speak. He should cease talking about his life changing experience. As cynical as people are, I believe they are tired of hearing about it.
What should McKinney do to preserve his lead?
...McKinney has to get in front of Eastern Shore people so they will know who he is. His experience comes through when he speaks. That is the edge he has. I believe Lipscomb and Bishop supporters are both important as vote swaying goes. McGriff’s people, largely Montrose, will support Trip as he is a neighbor of theirs. Also, McKinney is Baptist and Pittman is Episcopalian. This will only make a difference with the Baptist unless blood kin is involved somewhere and I heard a rumor there may be some kinship between Lipscomb and Pittman. I do not know that to be true.
Is there a single issue that has the potential to "overcome" the campaign and become pivotal to the outcome?
......I do not fully understand – do you mean the issue will overcome the campaign or an issue that must be overcome to win? If it’s an issue to win, people are really concerned about the ad valorem tax situation and they are blaming Gov. Riley, as he is getting credit for passing legislation that caused this as retaliation for not getting his tax package passed when first elected. So to align oneself with the governor may be counter productive. Although I support the governor, some do not because of this situation.
As for one issue to overcome, McKinney has to watch out for AEA, as they are after him and Pittman is an unknown to them. They will end up backing AJC (Cooper), and will support TP because he would be the easier of the two to fight in the general election. This is all just guess work on my part, as I don’t really understand the question. It does appear to be complicated to me.
What is your prediction on the outcome, both by approximate vote totals and percentages?
…….I believe it will be a lower turn out than before, maybe 6,000-7000 votes. Vote can go either way, depends on who gets their supporters out.
McKinney will win by 10 percent.
I am more interested to know what others think. Mine's a shot in the dark! We’ll see."
-- SOJ,
Baldwin real estate executive
"It is hard to predict who will win in this low turnout run-off.
Trip may capitalize on endorsements from the other candidates if their supporters turnout.
Randy must convince his voters to return to the polls. If he does that, he will win."
-- SBP,
state senator
"I definitely would say Pittman has a chance. He has no negatives and McKinney seems to have a lot to be exploited.
The one issue that seems potentially deadly to me is the same thing that makes McKinney strong -- Montgomery money. If Pittman can persuade Baldwin County residents that McKinney will be beholden to special interest Political Action Committees and groups in Montgomery and he (Pittman) is only looking out for them, he has a chance. I would put the odds at 50/50. Given McKinney's organizational and financial endorsements, he should have led by more."
-- LLB,
political consultant
"I believe McKinney will continue his lead because of his constituency base as a state school board member and his previous runoff showing against Bradley Byrne. He has run a good campaign and I understand ALFA has just contributed a large sum. McKinney must continue his television ads and his personal appearances.
Pittman, however, seems to have the burning desire and his supporters seem younger and more enthusiastic.
While (Pittman is) impressive, I think McKinney is the stronger candidate and will prevail.
Hopefully, the campaign will not turn negative.
To overcome McKinney, Pittman will have to have a huge television buy and push his supporters to get out the vote.
Hard to tell at this point, but probably McKinney 54 percent and Pittman 46 percent."
-- MPR,
retired political spokesman
