Baldwin County State Senate District 32:
Sizing up McKinney, Pittman
in Baldwin GOP Senate runoff
(3rd of 3)
By Chip Drago
Mobile Bay Times
Then there were two.
As expected, with five candidates, all of whom possessed varying degrees of political legitimacy, the Republican primary in the special election to fill the Baldwin County state Senate District 32 seat led to a runoff.
That the two left standing are south Baldwin real estate executive Randy McKinney and Eastern Shore businessman Trip Pittman is no surprise, at least not to Mobile Bay Times' readers who had the advantage of the July 11 analysis.
Combining to draw about two-thirds of the vote together -- McKinney with 37 percent and Pittman with almost 30 percent -- the remaining contenders last week eliminated Baldwin County Commissioner David Ed Bishop, former state Sen. Albert Lipscomb and GOP county chairman Don McGriff.
McKinney, a second time aspirant for the office, led the way with 5,562 votes. In his first try for elective office, Pittman got 4,568 votes for the runner-up position and the chance to fight on.
The turnout of 15,431 voters of the district's 87,179 registered voters represented participation of less than 18 percent.
Bishop drew 2,242 votes to finish third, with Lipscomb nipping at his heels in fourth with 2,209 votes. McGriff polled 850 votes.
McKinney and Pittman will face off on Sept. 11 to determine the GOP champion and a slot on the ballot Oct. 16 against unopposed Democratic nominee A.J. Cooper, an experienced politician who was once mayor of Prichard and now has a law practice on the Eastern Shore.
The winner will succeed Bradley Byrne in the state Senate. Byrne stepped down to take over as chancellor of Alabama's two-year college system.
Again, the Mobile Bay Times turns to its cadre of local, area and state political sources for analysis and insight into the campaign's remaining four weeks:
"Conventional wisdom in Montgomery now is that Pittman should win. Comments are his strong showing on the vote-rich Eastern Shore and his large number of signs in yards. Also, comments of “two good people” -- keep McKinney on (state) School Board and get another good man into public service, Pittman.
On the other hand, McKinney will have money advantage which could be huge and also endorsements from BCA, ALFA and Realtors will get their networks to get their voters out. Pittman foolish to exclude PAC money as it is so important. Public doesn’t know or care where money comes from and, if Pittman loses, it could be as a result of the money advantage he has given McKinney with this ill-advised position. McKinney and Pittman were 1st and 2nd in money-raising and finished in that order in the primary."
-- XFR,
lobbyist, ex-legislator
"Yes (Pittman can overcome McKinney's lead.)
(Pittman) should continue to play up (his airplane) accident and 'calling to do this' sort of 'ya-never-know-when-you-gonna-die and I-feel-a-need-to-get-involved-in-a-leadership-position type of talk evenly balanced with new leadership, new faces. This is what he has been doing and he got enough grassroots and money to make it work. Most importantly, work those farmers in the rural areas. Create phone trees with farmer/tractor clients of Pittman's, back to their church list.
Lipscomb will (editor's note: indeed, did) endorse Pittman and Bishop will stay out. If Pittman can get on TV and stay (on), he can win with the presentation he has already shown in grassroots. Remember, it was the first day for teachers and 'Meet Your Teacher Day' at most Daphne/Fairhope schools in Baldwin County on the last Election Day -- the law of averages would say that hurts the Eastern Shore more than the south part because of population distribution.
Finally, Pittman's strength falls on McKinney putting his nose right back behind GBR (Gov. Bob Riley) which is a sure bet and in high tax country, that's not going to play well. In the last election, that news was out for only one week. This time it will be saturated after five weeks including the coverage of appeal processes.
What should McKinney do to preserve his lead? Stop talking about Riley and talk about Baldwin County. Get to the Eastern Shore and take away excitement about Trip.
Finally, he should get a Christian message to radio and age 65 and over, plus cable buys in very large quantities.
Is there a single issue that has the potential to "overcome" the campaign and become pivotal to the outcome?
Riley, taxes, right-to-life (Republican run-off primary voters are ultra ultra right), and new blood in government, in that order.
What is your prediction on the outcome, both by approximate vote totals and percentages?
If I knew that I would be in Vegas, but for grins let's say recount (less than 1 percent), if Pittman exceeds $125,000 in money. If not, then McKinney by eight."
-- BND,
political strategist
"I think it is going to be very, very close and I don’t know enough to predict the outcome. I don’t believe that anybody does.
On the one hand, it obviously helps McKinney that he was early and clearly asking for action by the State School Board on the Bishop State Mess. If Joe Reed (who obviously has lost his cool over Bradley Byrne) and AEA money dump on McKinney again, I think it will actually help McKinney.
On the other hand, the ad valorem tax appraisal issue has almost all Baldwin County citizens ready to take up arms against whatever levels of government and current officials had anything to do with it. Not very many people have yet made the connection between this issue and Governor Riley and annual appraisals in less-than-all Alabama counties, but if they ever did -- perhaps from ads by Trip Pittman -- then it would certainly hurt McKinney, almost all of whose ads have prominently featured his close ties to Governor Riley.
It will be very close, but I have to think Pittman has a slight edge."
-- CHP,
Fairhope lawyer
"Since my property line touches the 32 boundary and unfortunately, I didn't realize this when we bought the house, I am represented by Pat Lindsey.
However, I'm somewhat familiar with the contest, so here goes:
Pittman is very strong on the Eastern Shore and has many supporters wearing tee shirts, etc. every day touting his candidacy. I don't see much evidence that McKinney is making any inroads into this captive Pittman region. I believe McKinney cannot depend on South Baldwin to carry this for him, so it would certainly behoove him to have something like a fish fry up in Pittman territory.
I was appalled at only 18 percent turnout, but suspect it won't be much more in the runoff. I don't see Bishop and Lipscomb votes going primarily to one candidate over the other, but I would have to believe at this point that the majority of those votes were Eastern Shore and probably could be counted in the Pittman camp.
Property assessments/taxes are huge right now, followed closely by insurance. I believe the timing of the reappraisals killed Bishop. I don't see either candidate effecting voter cross-over on either in the next few weeks since neither can do anything about it now or by tax-paying time.
Interestingly, I gave a presentation to a group in Bay Minette last week and the hot talk was the number of Democrats crossing over to elect someone that Mr. Cooper could beat. If that be the case, I assume they feel Pittman is the more vulnerable for Cooper as his name was mentioned.
I still believe it's McKinney at 51-52 percent with less than 20 percent turnout."
-- BAL,
tourism executive
"I think Trip will win. I think his message of running as outsider is working. Plus, I think he is outworking Randy.
It is also worth noting that trip is using (political/media consultant) Chris Brown out of Birmingham who specializes in grass roots campaigns and taking on the establishment, the (state Sen.) Scott Beason race for example.
Pittman wins in close race."
-- SMC,
state lawmaker
"My prediction is Pittman comes from behind for very close win. I will like either one though, the best two candidates are in the run-off."
-- TRC,
GOP leader
"Yes, Pittman can beat McKinney. I believe McKinney has peaked. I don't believe Bishop or Lipscomb or McGriff can deliver their voters to McKinney even if they were so inclined and I certainly don't think Bishop or Lipscomb are so inclined. Also, McKinney is a one-note Johnny and Bishop State is not in Baldwin County.
Pittman simply has to work his butt and gut off. He needs to beat McKinney like a church drum with real estate problems from appraisals to foreclosures to bankruptcies and the greediness of the real estate industry to the huge amounts of money he has received from GUMBO and the Realtors. He needs to speak with as many people as possible. He is a genuine and nice person whose intelligence and charm come through.
What should McKinney do to preserve his lead?
McKinney should get the Governor to end the annual appraisal system.
Is there a single issue that has the potential to 'overcome' the campaign and become pivotal to the outcome?
There are three but I will share only one: The Annual Appraisal System.
What is your prediction on the outcome, both by approximate vote totals and percentages?
Pittman 54 to 46; 8,800 votes: 4,785 (for) Trip and 4,015 (for) McKinney.
Now, what about the general election? There is one, you know.
What does A.J. Cooper have to do to beat Pittman? What will be the best three issues for Cooper? What will be the three hardest questions for Cooper to address?
Is there any way Cooper can win?"
-- FBM,
Democratic lawyer
