Baldwin County State Senate District 32:
At the First Turn
By Chip Drago
Mobile Bay Times
With the field nearing the first turn in the GOP primary to elect a successor to Bradley Byrne in the Baldwin County state Senate District 32 seat, evidence is building that many of the state's major interest groups -- real estate, forestry, trial lawyers, educators, evangelicals -- have put their hearts and money on different "horses."
The Republican primary is less than four weeks away. Five candidates are vying to follow Byrne who accepted Gov. Bob Riley's offer in May to take over as chancellor of the state's two-year college system.
The contenders are:
- County GOP chairman, attorney, onetime Republican nominee for lieutenant governor and ex-school board member Don McGriff;
- Farmer, former state senator and county commissioner Albert Lipscomb, who also ran unsuccessfully for Congress;
- Local businessman Trip Pittman, who has held a variety of appointed positions, including the Baldwin County Planning and Zoning Commission and the Alabama Commission on Higher Education;
- Gulf Shores real estate executive, attorney and state school board member Randy McKinney who also has a degree from the New Orleans Baptist Theological Seminary;
- Baldwin County Commissioner and longtime Fairhope city councilman David Ed Bishop.
Any one of the five arguably has the political strength to get 20 percent or more of the vote, meaning a runoff is very likely if not a near certainty, according to many of the political wise men (and women) with whom the Mobile Bay Times conferred.
Former Prichard Mayor A.J. Cooper, who now practices law on the Eastern Shore, qualified for the race as a Democrat and will face the GOP nominee in the fall.
MBT turned to a wealth of political sources to assess the jockeying for position in the campaign's early going.
"Here's the way I see it: McGriff has no chance and Lipscomb's not doing much better. The top three are McKinney, Pittman and Bishop in that order.
Pittman got off to a strong start and is likely to lead in Daphne and Fairhope. If that's right, he probably knocks Bishop out of the runoff.
Bishop's doing okay but rumors among likely Republican voters that he's the AEA candidate have hurt him some. If they continue, he's out.
McKinney's off to a slow start but has more fund raising ability than the others (unless Bishop is getting dollars from AEA) and has an excellent campaign team. He will likely pick up steam as Election Day approaches. His strength in Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and Foley balance out Pittman and Bishop in the Eastern Shore.
The likely scenario is McKinney in a runoff with either Pittman or Bishop.
Since the runoff period is so long now, it's like a whole new campaign. We'll be able to size up the runoff once we see who's in it. Bay Minette, Summerdale, Robertsdale, Loxley and Spanish Fort are up for grabs right now and may very well determine the outcome of the race."
-- PRR,
veteran Baldwin GOP official
"The race is drawing a lot of interest, as I thought it would. ... after having talked to a lot of folks in Baldwin County and throughout the State, it appears most of those think a run-off between Trip Pittman and either Albert Lipscomb or Randy McKinney is likely. I guess I have been a little surprised about the excitement associated with Trip Pittman's campaign."
-- HMS,
former Baldwin County officeholder
"With five candidates, I don't see anyone winning outright. If I had to bet on this race, I'd take Randy McKinney and Trip Pittman. McKinney ran a strong senate primary race against a better known Bradley Byrne several years ago (I think that Byrne won by about four percentage points) and has some recognition as a state school board member.
Although Lipscomb and Bishop have stronger name identification presently, if Pittman can raise enough money to mount a reasonable television campaign, he has all of the attributes to get him into a runoff with McKinney: not a politician (although he has served on several appointed boards such as ACHE), self-made successful businessman and is very engaging and personable on the stump.
Lipscomb may receive about 20 percent of the very small vote (maybe 10,000 total votes) and Bishop, through his name recognition about the same. McKinney should lead with about 30 percent with Pittman in second with 25 percent. McGriff trails with 5 percent.
In a McKinney/Pittman runoff, McKinney will have to work very hard to overcome Pittman's strength on the Eastern Shore. The winning candidate should spend a lot of time in central and northern Baldwin County because those areas may make the difference.
Ultimate winner?
If McKinney makes no major mistakes and gets his voters to the polls, he should win by about 52-48 percent. If he takes Pittman lightly and Pittman works hard, Pittman could eke out an underdog win. This is an exciting race and I look forward to it."
-- PST,
South Baldwin executive
"I think Randy McKinney is the guy to beat. However, with the field so crowded, we are almost guaranteed a run-off in the Republican primary. The run-off could be Randy and anybody, but Trip Pittman seems to be working very hard."
-- AFX,
south Alabama law enforcement figure
"I think in general Trip and Randy are the two to beat. However, with low, low turnout, Albert could be a factor."
-- LLL,
ex-legislator
"I suspect McKinney is the man to beat out of the gate. I think he is clearly 'Riley's guy' and has also done a good job of getting in front of cameras and microphones and saying what repubs want to hear about Bishop State and (BSCC President and state Rep.) Yvonne Kennedy. It will be interesting to see if any of the other candidates try and turn the two-year college issue around on him by pointing out that he was on the state Board of Education for years and never seemed very concerned about the ethical quagmire that is our post-secondary system -- until now. Is it unfair to suggest that the incumbents on the State Board might oughta accept some responsibility for what went on on their watch?
Another issue to watch in that district is the cost and availability of homeowners insurance. I would think that most any of the candidates could immediately get a lot of public support with a plan of action for dealing with the insurance crisis in a consumer friendly (or at least fair) way. The risk, of course, is that doing so would guarantee that the insurance companies would pour thousands against the insurance reform candidate.
As a subtext, I think it will be interesting to see if the CCA (Coastal Conservation Association) vs. Gillnetters issue bubbles up in this race. In a close election, either group could tip the scales."
-- CRM,
Bay area political observer
(While five GOP candidates compete on-stage for the Baldwin County state Senate District 32 seat, the state's political pro's -- with no other game in town -- battle backstage.)
"Not that close to it, but it appears you have the two strongest campaigns in Bishop and McKinney. Bishop is running a grass roots-oriented campaign while McKinney seems to be going almost entirely electronic. McKinney will have to have a bunch of money to win that way if he ignores grassroots.
McKinney's choice of campaign styles relates, I think, to his choice of Montgomery-based GC's (consultants) who are oriented toward statewide campaigns which tend to be singularly focused on electronic and fundraising. Bishop has a local consultant more inclined to running smaller campaigns utilizing grassroots.
Lipscomb will not have much of a campaign but could be a dark horse to make a runoff. No way he will be elected though in the end."
-- HPT,
Mobile attorney/politico
"Trip’s out front. Bishop is covering a lot of ground. McGriff is only showing in Montrose and will be sparse outside of that area (where he lives). McKinney is beginning to move, with signage and getting around. Lipscomb does not show much at this time. I doubt he will be a contender even with his right wing base. If we voted today, it’d be Trip."
-- RPO,
Baldwin real estate executive
"Randy McKinney is the front runner. Trip Pittman will work hard but has no name ID. Lipscomb will make the runoff. But don't listen to anything I say. Remember I said (Chris) Pringle would win Senate 34."
-- HCM,
former state lawmaker
"I think that Trip Pittman is going to do a whole lot better than the old-line politico, think-inside-the-same-old-box thinkers THINK he is going to do. My guess is that he will make the run-off, and maybe even lead. It is hard for me to imagine that anybody will get a majority in the primary, but I tend to think that if anybody will, he will. There are signs for him EVERYWHERE in the western end of the middle part of the county, anyway, almost as thick as they were in Spring Hill when Ann Bedsole first ran for the Legislature in, whenever that was, 1974 or '76 or something. He has signs in places where you would THINK that Bishop would be strong; if signs around here are any indication, Pittman will beat Bishop on his own turf.
The weakness in my view is that I don't go to the Gulf much, and I don't really know how many people down there actually vote, but I am working on the assumption that Randy McKinney will be strong down there. Just how strong, and how the numbers go, I do not know.
I tend to think that Albert Lipscomb's time has come and gone, but he does have a lot of name recognition.
Although McGriff is or was chairman of the party, I don't think he will make the run-off.
But, who the hell knows anything? Certainly not me."
-- KFE,
Eastern Shore lawyer
"I am surprised at the support Ed Bishop seems to have. I really can't make a prediction on how it will go. Many Republicans here like McKinney but Bishop wants it badly and he's working hard for it."
-- ESO-P,
Eastern Shore pundit
"I think it's Randy's to lose. I feel like Albert has been on the ballot too many times."
-- SWS,
state legislator
"Heard yesterday (Monday) very positive reports for Trip from neutral party. He said he sees more signs and hears more about him than anyone. Second seems to be Randy. Trip has raised more money since his report and has probably raised more than all the rest together.
David Bishop escaped formal review by the Party of his support for (state Sen.) Pat Lindsey, (D-Butler,) by proving he sent the donation to Children's PAC, a well known AEA pass through PAC. Children's then gave the money to Lindsey. If Bishop shows any strength this will be used by his opponents."
-- GTM,
south Alabama Republican leader
*(Editor's note: MBT wrote about the Bishop/Lindsey matter previously in a July 3 Political Round-Up. A spokesman for Bishop noted that Children's PAC has supported a diversity of political elements in Alabama other than AEA, among them Democrats and Republicans, including Attorney General Troy King, Republican state Sen. Steve French and the Christian Alliance.)
"Sorry. Been in NYC. Am now DC most of the month and haven't a clue. That old guy McGriff is sorta connected up though."
-- TDK,
south Alabama plaintiffs' attorney
"I live in the district. I've already been polled twice by Southeastern Research. The ladies that called said they were based in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Their questions seemed geared toward Ed Bishop."
-- BDS,
Baldwin politico
"David Ed Bishop is winning the signs-out race, but I still think Trip and McKinney in a run-off."
-- PDT,
former north Baldwin officeholder
"Randy’s behind and knows it. (He) has been up to his eyebrows in community college issues. He’s getting cranked up, has a rough road as he let Trip get too far out front. ... this is going to be interesting. The Realtors (are) going to back Randy and give him some help."
-- BCV,
Real estate executive
“It will be a case of who gets their voters to the voting booth. Who knows who is going to show up in a low voter turnout situation like this? If this were an election in the regular cycle when all the voters would be there, it would be easier to predict who the winner would be. If this were a regular cycle, I could probably pick one of two or three names. But the way things are makes it difficult. It is just hard to predict. Certainly in south Alabama, insurance reform and the struggle for power in the Senate (will be leading issues).
Lipscomb is the dark horse. I have to think a player at the end would have to be Lipscomb. His base is very activist. If there is a low turnout, I see Lipscomb as being a player in influencing that runoff.
The bottom line is: there are five very good candidates in Baldwin County.”
-- SHB,
longtime GOP legislator
