At the Water Cooler:
Along with the temperatures, political scene also heating up
Right along with the temperatures, the Alabama political scene is also heating up. If he is to have a political future, Big Luther Strange can't get it wrong this time when he takes on a possibly distracted GOP incumbent Attorney General Troy King. King finds his office disconcertingly of interest to federal prosecutors. Talk about the shoe on the other foot. State legislator Robert Bentley, a Tuscaloosa Republican, will run for governor. If you have never heard of Bentley before, that may tell you all you need to know about his prospects. Mobile County Commissioner Mike Dean has given his seal of approval to GOP contender Tim James, the Greenville businessman who has long been in the race while those in political office bide their time. The endorsement probably means more to Dean than James. Unless Dean's announcement has led to second thoughts, Bradley Byrne is on the brink of launching his Republican bid to assume the mantle of Gov. Bob Riley. State Treasurer Kay Ivey is finding the dwindling portfolio of the pre-paid state college tuition program to be quite an anchor in her putative run for governor. Jim Folsom's reluctance to face Artur Davis in the Democratic gubernatorial primary forced term-limited Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks into the race. Will Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb make a big splash by jumping into the race with Davis and Sparks, surprising many, not least her major supporters in the campaign for the top seat on the state Supreme Court? If so, does Sparks reconsider and cast about for another spot to roost? What effect, if any, will impending Obama appointees to posts as federal prosecutors in Mobile, Montgomery and Birmingham have on the process?
All these developments and all these questions warrant a trip to the water cooler.
TBM: Does Luther being in (the GOP primary for Attorney General versus Troy King) make it more or less likely that (Democrat Mobile County District Attorney John) Tyson will run for AG (again)? Or no effect?
WJS: Less likely. Luther would be a strong opponent were he to get the GOP nomination. And I gather the main thing holding John back is the retirement issue anyway.
TBM: I thought John had made his retirement so that in some ways another AG run would be akin to a free shot. Is it your understanding that Tyson needs to serve as DA beyond 2010 to fully qualify for his retirement?
I think Troy's time may be up. He was sort of a political creation. He arrived at a pretty high office and he really didn't do much along the way to earn it. I'm sure there are other parallels in Alabama political history though none immediately come to mind. I wonder if ultimately Luther's real goal is (U.S. Sen. Richard) Shelby's seat. I see where Shelby turned 75 just the other day (May 6). He won't run in 2016, or will he? If Luther wins a second term as AG, getting way ahead of ourselves, that would give him a free shot at senate in 2016, right?
WJS: I had the understanding that John needed some more time in office beyond 2010, not much but some. Probably John would prefer to run against Troy than to run against Luther.
I would be very surprised if Shelby didn't run in 2016. He would be in his early 80's, and he would be in line for the chairmanship or ranking member of the Appropriations Committee. And his genes are real good. And Luther by that time would be approaching 60 and would be somewhat old to start a Senate career.
TBM: Maybe Luther is looking at the governorship down the road. For no particular reason, I had thought of Luther as a Washington creature more than a Montgomery-type guy. But what you say makes sense.
One thing is for sure though: Luther better win this time.
WJS: I think he'd settle for either. But if Bradley wins (governorship), he'd have to wait eight years, and he'd be approaching 60. He would have a decent shot at governor then but not a lock. There would likely be a fresh new face by then. He may end up as someone with tremendous ability and attractiveness that luck deals a bad hand in terms of his timing.
TBM: Luck, timing, fate has a lot to do with it whether politics or life in general. Of course, all of those things can change on a dime.
What's the talk on federal appointments? Lots of conflicting stories out there. Vicki Davis will get the U.S. Attorney job here. And, then no she won't. If she doesn't get the nod, it will get interesting then. Pat Sims is Artur's number 2, but it could be that he stays No. 2 regardless of what happens to No. 1.
WJS: There has to be an AA (African American) in either Montgomery or Mobile. So, the game is complicated.
TBM: Do you know Kenyon Brown?
WJS: No. Who is that?
TBM: He's an AA former assistant U.S. attorney in Mobile. I think (former U.S. Attorney) Don Foster hired him. He left and landed a job with Justice in D.C. I believe his father may have been president of a college in Selma and had some political connections.
WJS: Interesting. Could be a good fallback for Artur. Any idea why Vicki may get knocked out?
TBM: She may have gotten tripped up over the prosecution of Akil Figures. That's not certain by any means. Lots of reliable reports say she's still the frontrunner and may be nominated pretty soon. Who knows? Anyway, (State Sen. and Akil's mother) Vivian (Figures) had given Vicki $500 for her district judgeship campaign back around 2000. Later when Akil faced federal charges, Vicki may have been involved at some point as an assistant in the U.S. Attorney's office here. So if Vicki falls short it may be because of some fallout over that.
WJS: Wow, that's interesting. And Akil is one of the nine guys named as victims in the Herman Thomas indictment, right?
TBM: Yep. Back on the federal appointments to U.S. Attorney openings, etc., I was told that JBS's elevation to ranking minority member on Senate Judiciary Committee could effect things. Dems will now whenever possible try to cooperate with him. Not to the extent that he has any great say, but more of an 'all things being equal which of these two appeals to you' type thing. Jeff's ties in the federal courthouse here and Justice Dept. generally go way, way back and I'm told that he continues to take a greater interest in the courthouse here than you'd think a U.S. senator ordinarily would.
WJS: Agree across the board.
