'Tis the season to talk ...
turkey? No, no, politics
At this point, most folks are tired of political campaigns. But not everybody is tired of politics.
Every election is akin to a shuffling of the political deck. Offices and prospective candidates are all cast in a different light.
For instance, talk of U.S. Rep. Jo Bonner's possible interest in following two-term and re-election-barred GOP Gov. Bob Riley as Alabama's CEO only intensified following Republican congressional setbacks earlier this month. In the near future, the House doesn't promise to be an hospitable place for Republicans. If it pans out, a Bonner gubernatorial candidacy prompts the attention of any number of lesser political lights looking to increase their wattage. And so on and so on.
With that in mind, MBT turned to a number of savants, wise men and assorted idlers, all granted anonymity in exchange for candor, with this query:
"Assuming Jo runs for governor, how would you handicap the 1st CD race in 2010?
AHS: "I would think (two-year college Chancellor) Bradley (Byrne) would be the favorite to take the seat, if he wanted it. He has name recognition. He has deep Mobile roots and ties, but represented Baldwin County in the State Senate. His family roots in Baldwin County actually go back to the time before Andrew Jackson took Mobile and Baldwin away from the Spanish.
He would have the ability to raise money based on his popularity with the business community.
And I would think the race would be attractive to him. It would be an open seat. And I wouldn't think he would want to go up against Jo in a GOP primary. They share the same base, and in that base Jo would be stronger. In the rest of the state, I would think Bradley could be a potent opponent for Jo. In fact, I would think Jo would want Bradley to go for his Congressional seat in order to prevent their mutual base from being split and to avoid the real competition Bradley would represent in the rest of the State.
Bottom line: I would think Jo would be the favorite in a race against Bradley for the gubernatorial nomination, but I wouldn't bet on the race at this point. I could see Bradley might be a real problem for Jo in the primary.
So, the easy thing for both of them is for Bradley to take Jo's seat, and for Jo to help ease the way for Bradley through his local supporters and the key people in Washington.
VAS: " (I'm) not really sure how it would shake out between BR (Bob Riley), BRB (Byrne) and Jo. There is the issue of 'unfinished business' in the two-year system that BRB is uniquely situated to fix. Starting a gubernatorial campaign in the midst of that will complicate the job.
Jo needs to poll his statewide name. While BR overcame it in 2002, he had enough money to do so. With a crowded GOP field of folks that also can raise lots of money, especially BRB, the task likely will be more difficult. Moreover, running against one another and splitting the vote in South Alabama could result in a runoff with someone like (Troy University President) Jack Hawkins from a different geographical base.
In the end I doubt Jo and BRB will run against one another. The donors will dissuade them for the reasons above."
TMB: Do (state Sen.) Ben Brooks, (Mobile County Commissioner Steve) Nodine, (Mobile County Sheriff) Sam Cochran, (Baldwin state Sen.) Trip Pittman, (Gulf Shores Mayor) Robert Craft and/or (Baldwin County Sheriff) Hoss Mack factor at all? I'm pretty sure Nodine and Brooks plan to run unless they find the early going too discouraging. Also would (Mobile County District Attorney John) Tyson, or (former Mobile Mayor) Mike Dow and/or (state Sen.) Vivian Figures factor at all?
AHS: Ben Brooks wouldn't have the money that Bradley could raise. And this race is going to cost over $1 million in the primary alone. I bet he decides not to make the race. He wants to be a judge anyway.
Steve Nodine would not have name recognition in Baldwin County. Money is also an issue for him. I think he could raise a respectable amount, but nothing compared to Bradley.
Sam Cochran is a very unlikely candidate. And money again would be an issue. Where would he get it?
Trip Pittman could be a factor, particularly if he self-financed. But self-financing a state legislative race and a Congressional race are very different animals. As I say, we're talking well over a million in the primary alone.
Nodine could be strong if he found an issue that caught fire. This might overcome the money he would face on the other side. He overcame money in his first race for city council. But you can do this in local races. Far more difficult in big league races."
TMB: "I suspect you are right, Occam's razor and all. Also, now I'm hearing that Jo will not run for governor, that he enjoys the attention, but he's going to make a run at a defense committee assignment in January, plus the governorship pays just over $100,000. Also hearing that Bradley may not run largely for the same reason. He's making $280k as chancellor. Is it a shrewd gamble to toss that for a no sure thing shot at a higher profile job paying a little more than one-third of your present salary?
AHS: "I always wondered why Jo would give up a job he loves for a POSSIBLE shot at another job. I think he could have lived with the pay cut, but what I questioned was whether he could live with losing his Congressional seat AND the gubernatorial race and have nothing to do. He inherited a lot of timber land in Wilcox County, but that doesn't provide income on a regular basis.
As for Bradley, I honestly don't know his personal situation. He has kids in school and that is expensive. But I think inherited property up highway 225, and I think in the old (Frank) McRight firm they made a killing on one case that set him up pretty well, I think. But he loves what he is doing, and it pays well. So, he may not run.
Artur (Davis) is better served if neither runs. He wants a stark contrast. He doesn't want an attractive GOP alternative if he is going to attract the swing urban, younger white voters along with the better educated white voters that he has to have to win."
JMC: "It will be another free for all with multiple candidates running."
TMB: In your estimation, ultimately which of the two will run, Bradley or Jo? Would Bradley run for congress if Jo appears to have the upper hand in the governor's race? What about Nodine, Ben Brooks, Sam Cochran, Hoss Mack, Robert Craft, do they factor in? Would Vivian Figures run and, if so, would that keep Tyson and/or a Mike Dow out? Or does John give it another go for AG? Also, buzz I'm hearing is that recently Hawkins has opted out of governor's race.
VAS: "I am sure they are both polling and talking to the Party and donors. I think -- emphasize think -- BRB would run for Jo's seat if the polls and donors indicate a preference for Jo. That would likely scare Nodine, Cochran out. Am hearing Tyson will not run for AG but will remain DA to qualify for full retirement. Have not heard anything about Hawkins but that makes sense. Also real question is does TK (Attorney General Troy King) seek reelection and will Big Luther (Strange) oppose him?
AHS: "New info for you. I hear Hawkins is out. He gave up when he lost Riley's favor. Jo's name ID statewide was only 17%. Another factor why he decides to stay in the House.
Riley is still looking for a candidate. He doesn't want Bradley or Hawkins, though he was for them before he was against them. But he really doesn't want (state Treasurer) Kay Ivey. He is very worried that she will get the GOP nomination. She is leading in the polls. And the NGA is behind her and a bunch of national GOP figures.
Tim James would be great for Artur. But it is probably too much for Artur to hope for. Kay could be an interesting candidate, but she has no base. She is from Wilcox County, and given the makeup of that County, she couldn't even carry her home county."
MTH: Lots of people with agendas are spreading rumors. Hawkins has not decided against running. Bonner won't run though he enjoys the attention. He will shoot for a Congressional Defense committee assignment in January. At 49, Jo is positioned to become a power in the House before he retires. Bradley may not run because his lifestyle at $280,000 a year as chancellor is better sustained than gambling on a far from certain victory in a hotly contested race for governor, a job that pays just $88,000 a year." (Editor's note: Actually, as of 2002, Alabama's governor earns a salary of $101,432, and is entitled to reimbursement of travel expenses up to $40 per day for travel within Alabama, and for total actual expenses outside the state.)
TRC: "The first couple of names that come to mind are Bradley Byrne and Steve Nodine. Bradley might see a better shot at Congress rather than Governor, and I know it was once a goal of his. Nodine will run, and one thing is certain about Nodine, it hasn't paid to bet against him yet. Can't think of any others although I am sure there will be several. Ben Brooks would be great, but I have no idea if he is interested.
We all had a decade to play the game of "who will run when Sonny Callahan steps down," but Bonner vacating for a run at Governor will catch most by surprise ... if it happens."
JMC: "I honestly don't know (who will run)! Rusty Glover (editor's note: Glover has said he will not run for Congress in 2010), Steve Nodine, Ben Brooks, and I'm sure many others. But I want Victor Gaston to run. Remember he is the longest serving elected Republican in the state."
ISM: "Nodine by a mile -- heaven help us -- and the folks in D.C.!"
KCP: "I actually spoke to Jo (briefly) a day or two after the election, and raised the issue and encouraged him to run. I thought he would dismiss me out of hand, but did not. He listened. I think Jo's talents are better suited for Governor than as a minority member of Nancy Pelosi's House.
Jo is a very, very decent fellow and a natural to build on the good things Bob Riley has done.
Anyway, if the seat opened, the field would be large --much larger than the last time. Jo was able to very effectively assume the incumbency last time and that kept folks away.
Sam Cochran could be very strong and it sets up well for him. People like and respect Sam. He is not seen as a career politician like most of the rest of those that will run. He is viewed much more as a public servant.
All of the local Republican state senators will look at it, but I think Trip Pittman could emerge to be very strong. He has not had to cast many votes yet, so he will not have to be on defense.
Bradley Byrne may look at it and look at AG -- I think Jo running for Gov is very bad news for him. But Bradley could easily go from AG to U.S. Senate (which I think is his goal).
Is Nodine up in 2010 or does he have a free shot? (MBT: Free shot, re-elected earlier this month without opposition).
If he has a free shot, he runs, but misses the runoff. So, I say Pittman, Brooks, Cochran and Nodine all run (plus many others). Sam and Trip make the runoff and Sam wins.
I do not think a D can win the seat -- no matter who it is. First the demographics are not favorable (something Artur Davis must be disappointed about) and, by then, President Obama will have forced some votes and raised issues that will be very hard for a conservative Democrat to defend. Also, the EADS issue will still be in play (or lost) and blamed on Obama -- a very tricky issue for any D in this area."
