crystalball103008

Election season almost over

Shoot up here amongst us cuz'

one of us needs some relief

By Chip Drago

Mobile Bay Times

Tuesday's election recalls the old story told by Mississippi comedian Jerry Clower. Good ol' boys out hunting. One gets stuck way up a tree with a bobcat which commences to hiss, slash and tear him up bad as the sun goes down. The guy's hunting buddies can't see well enough to target and drop the riled up bobcat. Finally, amid all the wailing and racket from above the man hollers, "Fellers, just shoot up here amongst us cuz' one of us needs some relief."

Come Tuesday, the electorate will vote in there amongst the candidates and the endless campaign will all be over. For many, it will be a great relief.

But how does it end? Not just for Barack Obama and John McCain, but also for numerous down ballot candidates who have weathered party primary storms to arrive at the brink of public office.

Mobile Bay Times called on its phalanx of political soothsayers for their thoughts.

"From a strictly political junkie's perspective, I find it interesting that there are apparently two ideas at work with regard to polling numbers and I am curious to see which method will turn out to be more accurate. Many of the major polling groups are indicating a large lead for BO based on the belief that the Dem's enthusiasm will turn up on election day. Several of the others (Zoghby's most notably) are polling a more historically weighted average of turnout (citing '04 and '00 elections where the same professed increased student and minority enthusiasm for the Dem's didn't increase significantly the turnout) which seem to indicate a much closer (within the margin of error) election. Gallup actually has polled both ways and shows a 7 and 2 point lead for Obama using each theory ...

McCain can win, but he has to run the table and not lose any more states (beyond IA and NM which seem hopeless) than Bush did in '04. If McCain can pull out PA, then it is almost impossible for Obama to win. If one uses the more conservative polling method, then everything depends on the turnout and election day operations in the various states. I have observed Republican efforts in several battleground states and they are confident of their numbers ... but then again, so are Democrats ...

Therefore, being the Republican optimist, I predict:

McCain with 271 electoral votes. Here's how: Start with Bush's 284, lose IA and NM (-12), lose CO and VA (-22), squeak by win in PA (+21), holding OH, FL and NC in cliffhangers.

In the Senate, the anti-Bush vote wrecks havoc among Republicans. They lose AK, OR, CO, NM, VA, NC, NH -- down to 42 seats from 49.

In Alabama's congressional district fights, McCain's strength in AL helps Jay Love and Wayne Parkereke out narrow victories over their opponents, Bobby Bright and Parker Griffith.

-- Armand Dekeyser,

GOP consultant

"Right now, I have Obama an 8 to 1 favorite to win Tuesday. He would be favored in Electoral College and also popular vote, but no odds there. Odds counld drop but on Election Day, (but) I still think he'll be a solid favorite to win ... no odds on county/state etc. races as many favorites clear cut."

-- Danny Sheridan,

sports analyst/handicapper

"I can remember as a kid, how surprised I was when Barry Goldwater lost. By all observations, I assumed because Goldwater signs were everywhere that it must have been the same all over the country. I learned a lesson that I've never forgotten. That lesson was that things are not always as they appear.

It appears that Obama will likely win. With the electoral college, winner take all method, there are any number of factors that can or may affect the outcome.

Most people probably don't know that a candidate can win each of the ten largest states by one vote, and not get a single vote in the the other 40 states and still be elected President.

I believe this election more so than many, will be decided by those who are truly undecided at the time they walk into the booth. Unfortunately, there are states like Alabama where if voting patterns persist, the outcome is pretty well determined before the election is even held.

McCain 49-52%, Obama 42-45%, the remainder to others.

What that implies is that, as usual, states that could swing

either way will once again decide the election.

All I know is that once again, I'm dissatisfied with both. A McCain win probably means that I can expect the economic policy to favor the oil, drug and insurance industries. An Obama win probably means more public assistance programs. The result is that those of us in the middle wind up paying for both ends of the spectrum no matter what."

-- Dale Mims,

real estate broker

"I think the electoral vote in favor of Obama will be substantial but that the popular vote will be much closer than the electoral vote indicates similar to (Lyndon) Johnson's defeat of Barry Goldwater.

This will be one more of many indications that we should abolish the winner-take-all electoral vote system in favor of one that reflects the constitutional standard of one man/one vote."

-- BIL,

consultant

"I had two civil cases set for trial -- one this week in Montgomery and one next week in Mobile. As a result, I have been so busy working on those cases that I have not had much of a chance to check out the political climate. I have never been too good at assessing the national scene in past elections and for that reason I probably have this one wrong, too. I do believe, however, that the negative tone of the McCain race has turned off the voters. However, he may be able to close the gap some by appealing to those who like nasty stuff in politics."

-- Jere Beasley,

attorney, former lieutenant governor

"I think Obama will win the majority in both (Electoral College and popular vote) and that could cause some

surprises all over, including some statewide, federal and local races."

-- Raymond L. Bell, Jr.,

attorney

"Obama will win decisively in the Electoral College but will have only a modest lead in the popular vote. Deborah Bell Paseur will win for the Supreme Court. Bobby Bright will win the 2nd district Congressional seat. The race for Bud Cramer's seat is a dead heat."

-- Bob Edington,

attorney, Mobile Democrat

"Having put on my soothsayer wardrobe, I predict as follows:

Obama wins popular vote by 9,000,000 and gets 305 electoral votes.

State-wide and Locally:

Mike Dean wins;

Jeff Sessions wins in a walk;

Not sure about the races for open house seats, but one, Cramer's, could stay Democratic.

Hope Deborah Bell (Paseur) wins, but probably won't and

Hope Lucy (Baxley) beats Twinkle (Andress Cavanaugh) -- an elected official named Twinkle would be embarrassing -- but Twinkle appears better funded.

Marilyn Wood should survive, but close.

Everything else will just have to take care of itself.

-- Al Pennington,

attorney

"While the ratings-driven media might be afraid to say it outright, I'll go ahead and state the obvious: this presidential election is effectively over, it has been this way for at least a month, and Barack Obama will be our next president.

While some recent state polls make it tempting to predict an Obama landslide, I'll at least go so far as to say that Obama will receive a modest majority in the popular vote and will easily clear 300 electoral votes when all is said and done. Obama is going to reap the benefits of a superbly run campaign, and John McCain will be doomed by his frenetic and disjointed messaging. Most of the actual voting still needs to be done, but Obama's amazingly extensive grassroots organization will likely seal the deal and put their man in the White House with a convincing win.

For Alabama as a whole, I think that three of our congressional races are going to be closer than some think. While the Democrats might not get any pickups, those underestimating Obama's coattails likely do so at their own peril. For the bay area specifically, I'll say only this: Jo Bonner is a lucky man. Had the (Ben) Lodmell candidacy stayed viable and had the incumbent continued his spectacularly unspectacular tenure in Congress, AL-1

would suddenly be one of those once-safe seats where the Republican incumbent was suddenly starting to feel the heat."

-- Kelson Bohnet

"Unless the silent majority shows up in large numbers in the swing states, Obama could win 300-plus electoral votes. He will win the popular vote nationwide 52%-46%-2% others.

Amendment One close. Sessions wins 60%-40%. Aderholt, Rogers, Love win. Griffith beats Parker."

-- Trip Pittman,

Pittman Tractor Co., Inc.

"McCain will win Alabama by one his largest margins. Unfortunately, Sen. Obama will win both the popular vote and the electoral college. He will win with at least 295 electoral votes and an electoral landslide is not out of the question. The world will keep spinning with an Obama administration. Remember, after Carter, we got Reagan.

I think Bobby Bright will win in the second congressional district and I think he can be a good Congressman. I think the fifth district is a toss-up and Mike Rogers holds on to the third district after a bit of a scare. However, it is

not inconceivable for him to lose. I visit northeast Alabama quite a bit (just the edge of Roger's district) and he is widely unpopular in the textile communities. His CAFTA vote hurt working families up there and they are very vocal about it. It is possible (but unlikely) for the Alabama congressional delegation to switch to majority democrat. What a disaster that would be for the AL GOP leadership.

Republicans take their lumps in this cycle, but rebound in 2010.

Locally, Dean holds on for four more years. GOP loyalists and straight party votes keep him in ... despite the fact that he governs like a liberal and is aligned with (District 1 Commissioner-elect) Merceria Ludgood. God bless (District 2 County Commissioner Steve) Nodine for the next four years.

Also, Kim Hastie, the hardest working candidate I have seen in quite a while wins. She will be a good License Commissioner."

-- AST,

Republican

"My half-derriere predictions:

Statewide ... McCain 59%, Obama 41%; Sessions 61%, Figures 39% (ADC dislikes Vivian so much that some of them will even vote for Jeff).

Nationwide.....Obama 55%, McCain 45%."

-- PST,

executive

"Alabama is a red state. Unless McCain/Palin do something really drastic, like run over a baby and shoot its momma to suppress the evidence, they will carry Alabama.

Sessions will be re-elected because Figures has alienated many of the folk who could have helped her. I'm not seeing any evidence of a campaign out of her, are you?

There is a congressional race -- Segall may pull it off because the race is tightening and he is getting support from national level.

Bright may be able to pull off his race; Harri Ann Smith(R) has endorsed him and that says a lot for him.

Today's paper indicates a close run for Deborah Bell Paseur. She is as 'folksy' as her opponent and her ads resonate with the conservative voters.

Then, on top of all this, there is that surge in voter registration that has to be considered. I have been to the courthouse several days this week and every time there has been a line out of the voter registration office out to the Government Street door. Many blacks in that line. I think that says something for Dems and voter registration effort, and probably voter turnout. Alabama may come closer to turning blue than it has since before 1964.

This has been an extremely long campaign and I usually am not one to say that, but I am beginning to wonder what we will do with our time when this campaign is over. Is there life after campaign?"

-- Vivian Beckerle,

former Mobile County treasurer

"I know the conventional wisdom is that Obama has it in the bag, but hold on, not so fast! This race is much closer than the media wants it to be. If you look at the numbers the last few days, McCain is closing the gap and is starting to peak at the right time. Obama is trying to play it very close and not rock the boat. He hasn't even done an interview in over a month. I see McCain continuing to close the gap and it being razor thin all the way down to the wire. I don't see an Obama landslide by any means; there are several states that are in the toss up category that have been red states the last several cycles that will stay red. The problem that McCain has is that he must hold on to all of the states that Bush carried in 2004 and this

is a very tough order. I think he wins Florida, Missouri, and Ohio and picks up Pennsylvania. I think that McCain can squeeze this one out. His message about Obama's plans to redistribute the wealth should be hitting home in the rural areas of Ohio and Pennsylvania. In Florida the military vote and the panhandle will pull him through. I think Obama buyer's remorse will be worth enough points to push McCain through in several must win states. This race is very close even though it really shouldn't be historically speaking it should be a Democrat year this combined with Bush's unpopularity and the bad economy the Democrats should be way ahead.

The Democrats picked the wrong guy, even though I loathe her, Hillary Clinton would have won this in a walk!

This race will go into election night and beyond. The days of litigating every presidential race are here and I think this race will be fought out for weeks or more. Unfortunately, I think there is a high probability of civil unrest following this election. I don't want this too happen, but I see it coming.

As far as statewide, Sessions will destroy Figures. I think it will mirror the presidential race around 56%. The GOP wins the court races. The Baxley vs. Twinkle race is

an interesting one and I think the Democrats have their best chance here. I think that Twinkle pulls some of Baxley's female support and wins this one in a close race. I see all of the seats staying in the same hands except for

Cramer's. The Democrats have a good shot in the 2nd Congressional District with Bobby Bright, but I think the military communities in Montgomery and around Ft. Rucker give the race to Jay Love. Rodgers and Aderholt keep their seats and Parker picks up Cramer's seat in a very, very close race. North Alabama has so many transplants that it is almost a separate state. I think Griffith takes it to the wire, but the defense industry and McCain take

Parker across the finish line.

I could be wrong about any and all of this but it sure is fun to speculate."

-- Chip Brown,

commercial real estate

"The media has been unusually biased this election cycle. So, it is difficult to obtain a true feel for what is actually taking place. Expect a Democrat win for president with modest gains in both houses. Following this a general united moan or gasp will take place when the first leftist ideas are brought forward. The margins in both popular and the electoral college will not show the land slide that the media is suggesting.

Mobile and Baldwin counties will go Republican again. But because of the dynamics of this particular presidential election the margins of victory will be smaller. No one will notice. As for the state, it will for the most part continue to move toward the Republican ideas."

-- Lee Roe

"The popular vote will go 55-45 % (excluding 3rd parties) for Obama nationally.The electoral vote margin will be much bigger in favor of Obama. I believe Obama will run very strong (like 42-48 %) in Mobile County.

Considering the large voter registration in Mobile County and the large number of absentee ballot voters in line at the courthouse daily, I believe all our four local candidates are going to win. The biggest margins will be in favor of Renee Williams (for revenue commissioner) and Elizabeth Edwards (for license commissioner).

I also believe that Deborah Paseur will soundly defeat Greg Shaw for Alabama Supreme Court. And that Lucy Baxley will win as PSC President."

-- Bob Beckerle

attorney, Mobile Democrat

"Alabama and Mobile County will be safe GOP elections.

The popular and Electoral College depends upon how much socialist Kool-Aid is handed out at the polls. But the good news is that it will be spread around for all evenly, paid for by few, but gladly taken by most."

-- Terry Lathan,

local GOP committee member

"Both the popular vote and the electoral college vote will be very close, but the Republican ticket will win both. I believe that Pennsylvania will go Republican and be the deciding factor.

I think that Jeff Sessions is a safe bet, and that the Republican ticket will win in Mobile County."

-- Phil Benson,

unsuccessful GOP candidate for revenue commissioner

"It will be a good night for Republicans in Alabama and even better in Mobile. John McCain will win by a comfortable margin that will have pundits and pollsters desperately trying to explain their miscalculation. Mainstream media will suffer a fatal blow that relegates all to tabloid status."

-- Pete Riehm,

Mobile GOP

"Looks like Obama will win nationwide. I predict he will win not only the popular vote, but the electoral college votes as well. However, I expect McCain to win Alabama hands down. As far as the race for U.S. Senate, Vivian Figures has an uphill battle in trying to unseat Sen. Sessions. He has raised a significantly higher amount of money than her and has out spent her. Jo Bonner with no opposition will return to Washington."

-- Amy Andrews,

attorney, Mobile Democrat