Alabama's 'Life of Riley' ending, successors jockey for position
By Chip Drago
Mobile Bay Times
Who will succeed Alabama's highly-popular, two-term Gov. Bob Riley? The wannabes are already maneuvering into position.
On the Republican side where Riley resides, those most often mentioned are Greenville businessman and former Gov. Fob James' son, Tim James; juco Chancellor Bradley Byrne, a former Baldwin County state senator; U.S. Rep. Jo Bonner; Troy University President Jack Hawkins; and state Treasurer Kay Ivey.
Other Republicans drawing lesser mention are U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions; Attorney General Troy King; state House minority leader Mike Hubbard; Alabama Retirement Systems czar David Bronner; Birmingham attorney Luther Strange, former nominee for lieutenant governor; Secretary of State Beth Chapman; Rob Riley, an attorney and the governor's son; Tuscaloosa developer Stan Pate; and even former Secretary of State Condi Rice.
The Democratic side is not quite the cattle call as the GOP.
The prospects include Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom Jr., formerly the governor; U.S. Rep. Artur Davis, who also headed the Obama campaign in Alabama; and Ron Sparks, the state's agriculture commissioner. Of lesser mention are Sue Bell Cobb, chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, and Mike Dow, the former mayor of Mobile.
The contenders will be able to begin raising money in about six months for the 2010 election cycle. Ground work must be done before that, so those with genuine hopes of the governorship know the time for deciding, in or out, is near.
So who would be either party's best nominee?
Let's turn to MBT's Democratic savants:
"George Wallace, not Jr., the original, but he seems to be unavailable. Since the Republicans are essentially old Wallace Democrats, this would make the most sense.
I would love for it to be Artur Davis, though I am not sure he can win a statewide race.
As far as winning statewide, how about Sue Bell Cobb?"
-- PVA,
lawyer
"At this point, it's hard to say. I'd have to go with Artur Davis as the frontrunner. I think the nomination is his for the taking. He's popular across the boards, getting well known, and hasn't ruffled too many feathers."
-- Amy Beckerle Andrews,
attorney, Mobile
"First, I think Artur Davis has the Democratic nomination locked up IF he decides to run and I think he will. He will have gained so much statewide attention because of his close relations with President-elect Obama that the Jim Folsom's of the Democratic Party would be wasting their time and money to run against him.
There are others, Democrats and Republicans, whose names have been kicked around, but when it comes time to throwing your name in the hat, if Artur and Jo Bonner are in, they would be my picks for the party
nominations. If they meet in the general election, I think a lot depends on what Obama has done for this country and for Alabama, i.e. the Tanker contract, on who Alabamians will vote for. I think it might be too close to call at this time."
-- RQT,
CPA
"James Folsom Jr."
-- Tom Powell,
attorney, Birmingham
"Ron Sparks. Hands down."
-- Brad Warren,
Warren Adhesives
"As you are well aware, there is a difference between best and best chance of being elected. I think the nominee who would stand the best chance of being elected is probably Jim Folsom. I must say however that I really like Artur Davis and Ron Sparks."
-- Karlos F. Finley,
attorney, Mobile
"Though I am not a Republican, it appears that the good people of Alabama still believe that the folks that brought you the last four years are best for Alabama and America. I am hopeful but not convinced that the national change will be for the better. The problem is not Democrat or Republican but MONEY. They both have to chase money more than votes meaning that people who have money have more control. The second problem is political (and, in the South at least, racial) gerrymandering. This means that some seats are so secure for one side or the other that the people running for and holding office don't have to give any consideration for the other point of view and in fact can get defeated if they do.
Now after that bit of bitching, the most liking candidates would be Jim Folsom, Jr., Sue Bell Cobb, and Artur Davis. I don't think Cobb would chance it and don't have any idea that she would want to try. Artur Davis might try because he probably wants to be Senator and if he gets defeated he could just go to work for the Obama administration. Either way it would fill out his resume. Folsom would have the best chance of being elected. His comeback and election as Lt. Governor against a well financed Republican was impressive.
Who else is there?"
-- Harry Long,
attorney-at-law, Anniston
"Former Mobile Mayor Mike Dow."
-- Shawn Bivens,
Mobile
"Nobody is mentioning Mike Dow as a possible gubernatorial candidate. I assume that, if he decided to run, he would do so as a Democrat. Again, assuming someone gently persuades Cong. Davis that he has no chance until the next generation of Alabamians arrives, Dow could raise the money and beat Folsom and Sparks in the primary. Dow has the background, experience and credentials to run as a conservative Democrat and beat any of the potential Republican candidates in a general election. Of course, all of this depends upon where Centralite is in the next six months or so. Mike will not leave his brother-in-law until that company is successful.
My prediction is Dow will be governor (if he chooses to run) or Bonner (if he chooses to run in a race against Folsom). I'd get down and dirty about Folsom's shenanigans with Milton McGregor and junkets to the Bahamas on
Milton's jet."
-- PST,
advertising
"Jim Folsom, Jr."
-- EEE,
executive
"I think it will come down to Jim Folsom and Artur Davis with Davis getting the nomination."
-- Steve Moore,
attorney, Mobile
"Artur Davis."
-- Pat Edington,
longtime Democrat
"Not sure. There are at least four candidates who would have a chance of being in the run-off if they ran and they are Bronner, Davis, Folsom and Sparks. I believe that the Democratic nominee will be governor regardless of who it is."
-- Jere L. Beasley,
attorney, Montgomery
"Jim Folsom."
-- JoAnn Flirt,
public relations
"Artur Davis."
-- Don Briskman,
attorney
"Jim Folsom."
-- Bob Beckerle,
attorney
"Ron Sparks."
-- Skip Brutkiewicz,
lawyer
"I would say the smart money is on Jim (Folsom) Jr.
But regardless of who it is, the question is, who can win?
The election of Obama has changed the dynamics somewhat. I would suspect that there will be several African American candidates in the primary. If so, that will make it very difficult for Jim Jr. or any other white Democrat to get the nomination, which means the Republican primary winner will most likely win the election.
"It may take some time for things to resolve themselves because the Democratic party will never be viable statewide if no white candidates ever win primaries. That isn't a good proposition for black or white Democrats. I've maintained for a long time that the Democrats continually nominate people who can't win as opposed to looking at the bigger picture and finding someone who could win even if you don't agree with everything about them."
-- Dale Mims,
real estate executive
"Folsom without question, IF he can get nominated. I love Artur, but looking at Obama's result he'd have a very tough time. He might be the best man we have and someday I hope we could be the kind of State that would elect him."
-- Ed Massey,
attorney, Mobile
"Personally, I believe the Democratic Party will be in good shape with Davis, Folsom or Sparks."
-- Levon Manzie,
Democrat, Mobile County School Board member
"Artur Davis."
-- Pete Burns,
attorney
"My favorite candidate for any office is Bill Moyers. I guess my back up is Ron Sparks."
-- Henry Brewster,
attorney, Mobile
"Folsom is currently seen as the Dems' best bet as conventional wisdom is that considering Obama's poor performance among older white 'TVA Democrats' in the 4th and 5th CD's, the very competent and thoughtful Artur Davis would have a tough time winning in the fall.
He would, however, absolutely win a primary vs. Sparks (who I'm not convinced will run) and Folsom. Take Sparks out and it's less certain, but Artur would presumably have the benefit of the Obama lists, organization, etc. -- a nice leg up in a Dem primary.
Anyhow, a bunch of 'Bama Dems are hoping for an Obama cabinet offer that Artur can't refuse ..."
-- WPA,
Democratic consultant
"Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom."
-- Gene Eason,
FBI agent, retired
"Davis, Folsom, Sparks. All would be good choices."
-- Raymond L. Bell Jr.,
attorney, Mobile
"Democrats have several excellent possibilities and it is good to have a field to pick from. Ron Sparks has certainly had a solid, accomplished history as Commissioner of Agriculture, Jim Folsom Jr. has all the credentials and knowledge, and the list goes on. Artur Davis while having set a definitive record in his present elected position, I do not feel is electable as Governor. Personally, I like Ron Sparks."
-- Dianne Jones,
Mobile Democrat
"Don Seigelman? Maybe he's learned something (since) the last time he was in office. A. Davis has taken more from South Alabama since Katrina. He doesn't know south Alabama (and knowing two or three people (who shall remain nameless) IN south Alabama is NOT knowing the people OF south Alabama.
Little Jim? He knows how things work and knows how to work a House AND Senate majority. I'm not all that certain that he understands south Alabama either.
Millions of dollars of FEMA money went to Tuscaloosa INSTEAD of south Alabama's Mobile and Baldwin counties. At least one 'would-be' contender who currently serves in the U.S. Congress knew or should have known about that. What infra-structure winds and water damage was done in Tuscaloosa secondary to Katrina such that it warranted FEMA money? That's 'poly-TICKS.'
Shelby isn't running as a Democrat again, is he? Well, pickin's are slim for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate who can and will represent south Alabama, too."
-- Joseph Mitchell,
Democratic state representative, Mobile
