'Life of Riley' era nearing end,
successors jockey for position
By Chip Drago
Mobile Bay Times
Who will succeed Alabama's highly-popular, two-term Gov. Bob Riley? The wannabes are already maneuvering into position.
On the Republican side where Riley resides, those most often mentioned are Greenville businessman and former Gov. Fob James' son, Tim James; juco Chancellor Bradley Byrne, a former Baldwin County state senator; U.S. Rep. Jo Bonner; Troy University President Jack Hawkins; and state Treasurer Kay Ivey.
Other Republicans drawing lesser mention are U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions; Attorney General Troy King; state House minority leader Mike Hubbard; Alabama Retirement Systems czar David Bronner; Birmingham attorney Luther Strange, former nominee for lieutenant governor; Secretary of State Beth Chapman; Rob Riley, an attorney and the governor's son; Tuscaloosa developer Stan Pate; and even former Secretary of State Condi Rice.
The Democratic side is not quite the cattle call as the GOP.
The prospects include Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom Jr., formerly the governor; U.S. Rep. Artur Davis, who also headed the Obama campaign in Alabama; and Ron Sparks, the state's agriculture commissioner.
The contenders will be able to begin raising money in about six months for the 2010 election cycle. Ground work must be done before that, so those with genuine hopes of the governorship know the time for deciding, in or out, is near.
So who would be either party's best nominee?
Let's start with MBT's Republican savants:
"On the Repub side, I'm also very interested in some recent rumors of discussions between Riley and Sessions which are said to center on Riley supporting or anointing Sessions as his successor as governor in exchange for presumed Gov. Sessions appointing Riley to his current Senate seat. Such an arrangement would not be in conflict with Riley's recent statements that he wouldn't run for another office. It of course would be in conflict with his stated desire to 'raise cows and grandchildren' back home in Clay County."
-- WPA,
Mobile area politico
"Jack Hawkins ...Troy University ... no question."
-- John Williams,
Mobile city councilman
"Do you think Jo is really going to pull the trigger? He tells folks he's happy where he is but he is getting encouragement to look at governor. Do you really think Riley is doing any of this and why? Seems like he has his hands full right now and would want to stay out of any anointment process."
-- FMF,
attorney
"Bradley Byrne."
-- David A. Bagwell,
lawyer
""Jo is the strongest guy the GOP could nominate. If he chooses to run, he will win the nomination and be elected governor. I believe that. I really do.
Jo has been around Alabama politics for a long time and is a lot better known all over the state than some folks may realize. He is a fairly well-known commodity across the entire state. He would be fairly well engaged statewide early in the process. That would be a strength.
A weakness obviously is that Washington is so different from Montgomery.
I've known Jo a long time. He's a student of history. He is a very pragmatic person. He understands very much the reality of Montgomery politics; the politics of Montgomery issues that are important; the issues that can be addressed and the issues that unfortunately for one reason or another can't be addressed. So he brings savvy and maturity to the table.
He has a great relationship with people. The governor has a high opinion of him. Mike Hubbard has a high opinion of Jo and that will help.
I don't think Jack Hawkins will run if Jo runs. I don't think Kay Ivey will run if Jo is in the race. At the end of the day, I don't think Bradley will run against Jo. So in the final analysis if Jo runs, we are talking about Jo and Tim James. If that is the case, I don't see it being a very close race really."
I think we will see some more serious testing of the waters and it will be six months to a year before the race really settles in. It is an open seat and a lot of people of accomplishments and standing in their own minds think they can win. It will take some time for some of them to realize they can't win and go for other options. So in six months to a year, we will have a go idea of who is running and who's not and how all the sides match up."
-- LTF,
political strategist
"Bradley knows the issues facing the state cold and more importantly he understands the politics of the issues and the art of what is possible. Ditto for Jo on the federal side. They should run on parallel and not intersecting tracks. That's what's truly best for the State."
-- BRF,
attorney
"I like Tim James but I'm not sure if he's electable. Bradley Byrne and Jo Bonner would both be okay, too. So the order of my preferences would be James first, Byrne second, and Bonner third."
-- DAC,
mortgage broker
"Jeff Sessions."
-- Alex Mathis,
GOP loyalist
"Bradley Byrne."
-- NSI,
local Republican official
"I believe that Jack Hawkins, of Mobile, president of Troy University, would be a formidable candidate for many reasons ... charisma, good reputation, public recognition level. Would be a good campaigner."
-- John Butler,
Mobile County juvenile judge, retired
"Bradley Byrne."
-- Sage Lyons,
Huntsville businessman
"Don't forget the improbables, such as Ms. C. Rice, and others who have served during difficult times. Personally, I hope that Jo Bonner stays where he is, and builds seniority on the Appropriations Committee."
-- QYS,
real estate
"Of course, Tim James would be the best GOP nominee for Governor of Alabama. He's the only candidate in either party who has the proven background to lead Alabama out of this recession into prosperity."
-- Tim James,
GOP candidate
"We need Jo Bonner in Congress! Bradley Byrne is the best overall candidate."
-- Tommy Tyrrell,
construction management
"Jo Bonner."
-- LM,
real estate executive
"As for the Republican candidate, I believe Jo Bonner would be my favorite right now. Recognizing that his statewide name recognition might not be as high as the others in the race, as Bob Riley proved six years ago, it can be overcome. I had previously thought Bradley was a
lock, but if Jo enters, I think Mobile and Baldwin would fall in more behind Jo and that would be the catalyst to jump start his campaign. I know Kay Ivey is serious about running for this office, would have great name recognition and be well received amongst women voters, but again, I don't see her winning the Republican nomination. I think Jack Hawkins blew his chances when he began appearing in TV ads for Troy University. It turned me off and I believe it turned Bob Riley off. I think we have seen the last of the James family in the Governor's mansion."
-- PBJ,
financial consultant
"I believe Bradley Bryne would run a good race against either of the two top Dems, Davis and Folsom -- better name recognition than many of the other candidates except James and Strange from previous races.
I believe Jo Bonner, although a great guy, friend, and certainly a formidable candidate, will benefit the State better with at least eight more years as a Congressman or Senator should he chose to run for Shelby's seat at retirement. I don't know if the Governor's seat is the one he'd rather have.
However, outside of your Congressional district, not many remember who was the representative 20 years later, but all remember the past Governors' name. Jo certainly could make things interesting and raise a pile of money in the meantime. Running against Folsom would be easier than running against his friend, Artur."
-- Bill Tunnell,
tourism executive
"Bradley Byrne."
-- Marietta M. Urquhart,
commercial real estate executive
"Jo would win very big down here. Statewide Bradley has better name ID, therefore, I think it would cost him less to run and win."
-- PTM,
south Alabama politico
"Kay Ivey!"
-- Kelly A. McGriff,
Baldwin County attorney
"I like Jack Hawkins. He isn't a traditional politician and I think 2010 will be one of those years after a couple of years of the Obama administration and a sickening economy people will want to look outside of the traditional candidates. Hawkins has a network already in place and can tap into it at a moments notice. He has a great personal story -- Vietnam Marine Vet who worked is way through college to become a successful University President. If he does indeed run -- and I think all signs indicate he will -- he could very well be the outsider in an outsider's year. Think 1978 and Fob James."
-- Chip Brown,
commercial real estate
"Confidentially - Bradley Byrne."
-- BP2,
south Alabama CFO
"Bonner is the guy and I could parade a list of arguments about why Jo would be a great Governor (and his wife an excellent first lady with class). Most importantly though, we need an executive who has no baggage in the state political arena and he is the only one. Let me take a well liked local and presumptive front runner in comparison.
Bradley Byrne's negatives are higher than most potential candidates. Bradley's fights with AEA, Lowell Barron and others in the legislature will make it impossible for him to get anything accomplished. This fighter figure might be a plus in a primary, but this is most likely to impress the far right, who are more likely to support James who opposed Amendment One and is a staunch R, not a questionable convert.
Bradley's publicly known desire to fight will be a major negative in the general. People want someone who can reach across the aisle and not banter about partisan politics and much more so today, post Bush.
All the statewide polls show Bradley one of the least likely to beat Folsom and in a replay of ironies, Bradley is going to have a hard time connecting with red neck voters. I mean nobody looks better in a pair of silk jogging shorts than Bradley -- except maybe Luther in a tennis outfit.
Sure one could argue that Artur might run, and that in such a race any Republican could be elected, including a sweep of the legislature. I would hasten to wake up from that dream.
Obama received less than 12 percent of the white vote statewide and that was against John McCain. Artur will not face any John McCain in the general. Sure Alabama is maturing, but it's not there yet.
In the end Folsom runs. His reputation has been repaired and he will be praised as a conservative Democrat who can reach across the aisle. It looks like there will be no national tax increases until well past 2010 so national politics won't be an argument and even so, Folsom has his own brand in Alabama.
This is why we need a Bonner, with the image of a statesman and enough salt of the earth to look comfortable in the mud fixing a tire. Bonner can run, win and finish what Bob Riley started, without distractions."
-- BNW,
politico
"I'd go for Bradley Byrne. He has the familiarity with State government that none of the others have. Little Jim Folsom will be hard to beat, though."
-- HHA,
retired
"That really depends on who seeks the Democratic nomination. Sounds strange, but let me explain.
If Artur Davis seeks the Democratic nomination, he will win it. Then, any of the possible mentioned candidates matches up well (except Kay Ivey, I don't care what her polling says right now ... no way she can match up with the intellect of Artur Davis).
However, if Congressman Davis passes and Lt. Gov. Folsom or Ag. Com. Sparks is their nominee, then the GOP must be more selective.
It isn't a secret that there is somewhat of divide in the GOP at both the national and state level between the social/blue collar Republicans and the fiscal Republicans. I can see many rural conservatives switching over and voting for someone like Sparks if the GOP doesn't nominate someone that can relate to them. The GOP must nominate someone that can unify both factions of the party.
Who is that someone? Maybe Jeff Sessions.
However, I don't think he has any desire and he can emerge as a true conservative leader at the national level in the given environment.
So, of the mentioned interested candidates, I'm not sure. I don't believe Bradley Byrne can relate to the average Alabamian and I'm not sure if Tim James can win. Who knows if Bonner is really serious? Maybe the GOP should think out of the box and nominate Jack Hawkins. The problem is, I'm not sure if the GOP establishment will give him a shot or if he can raise the money to win the nomination."
-- YCB,
south Alabama Republican
"Bradley Byrne."
-- PM,
GOP attorney
"Bonner. I may be the only one, but I think that Bonner's name ID is higher than Byrne's statewide. Byrne gets a lot more publicity in South Alabama than elsewhere in the state and those that follow him are, for the most part, party insiders and career education people. The general public could care less about Bradley and his tilting at windmills."
-- PST,
Gulf Coast executive
"Bradley Byrne."
-- Merrill Thomas,
real estate developer
"Tim James. Best guess is the Congressman is enjoying the press attention."
-- HRZ,
political advisor
"I hope Bradley Byrne doesn't run because he's been doing such an excellent job as Chancellor and I think it would be difficult to find anyone who would be able to replace him. I think Tim James is knowledgeable and I approve of his worldview on the issues important to me. Hasn't Mike Hubbard's name come up? Although I haven't talked to him on many issues, we were in agreement on those we've discussed. I think it's going to be an interesting race and whoever wins is going to have to deal with some real financial problems."
-- Betty Peters,
state school board
"I think it's really too early to say. It's my guess that we have a historic moment in time where the voters would vote one way today but if the economy continues to go south, will rethink their priorities tomorrow and vote differently.
I'd say that a year from now the voters will be looking for someone who understands the problems of Main Street, Alabama, working people, and is not a career politician, (someone) whose solutions aren't political but good for the
state, that will attack the institutions and power brokers, clean up the political mess that we have in Montgomery and get the things done that need to be done to get us out of the economic depression that's coming our way.
The people who have announced or are considering it, Democrat or Republican, are of the same old model of what we have. I hope they all just retire and let some new blood take over. Politically we need to clean house and elect people who understand the problems and can offer solutions to them that make sense -- be it the energy, economic, jobs, insurance, education, or what ever
problem. The people of Alabama sure need it!"
-- Bob James,
road builder
"I believe that any one of these four would be good, Tim James, Troy King, Jo Bonner or Bradley Byrne.
However, my personal belief is that Bradley Byrne would be more electable due to his recent successes with the two-year college system. I think that more folk would have a positive image of him than of the other candidates."
-- Phil Benson,
GOP candidate, Mobile County Revenue Commissioner
"Kay Ivey or Tim James."
-- Austin Rainwaters,
former GOP candidate, Mobile County Commission
"Me, but I am not running. Probably Jack Hawkins or Bradley Byrne."
-- Steve French,
Republican state senator, Jefferson/Shelby counties
