Polling the pols & pro's on the polls
By Chip Drago
Mobile Bay Times
Recent polling shows incumbent GOP Gov. Bob Riley with a big, perhaps insurmountable, lead over Democratic nominee Lucy Baxley while the battles for lieutenant governor between Democrat Jim Folsom Jr. and the GOP's Luther Strange and attorney general between Republican incumbent Troy King and Democrat John Tyson Jr. were too close to call.
Were the numbers in any way surprising? We called on several politically-attuned contacts for their interpretations of the data.
HRS, education advocate: "Not surprised at all. Those numbers are consistent with the others I have been hearing all along for those races with Tyson clearly moving up and Troy stagnant. I don't know that Repubs are completely unified behind King (I have heard rumbles that the (former Republican attorneys general Bill and Jeff) Pryor/Sessions crowd is less than impressed with TK), Tyson is vastly more experienced and appears to be competitive in fund-raising. King has also ruffled some feathers in the bar association with his diatribe against them as a "liberal activist organization." Conventional wisdom suggests that as an incumbent, King should have a bigger cushion built into his numbers and the fact that he does not suggests some weakness.
"My read on the lite gov.(race) is that Repubs have reason to be concerned. First, Folsom's ad -- "two children, three dogs, and four shotguns..." -- is one of the best I have seen in Alabama in a long time and was very effective at defining Folsom before Strange did so himself. Factor in that Strange's numbers are not more favorable despite a year long, multi-million dollar statewide TV campaign, and one reasonable conclusion is that he has hit a ceiling of sorts that dollars alone won't break through. It is also possible that Strange peaked too soon. Strange's close ties to Washington Repubs is also now less "trumpetable" with the Abramoff/Scanlon stuff as well as the Mark Foley revelations.
My sense is that those two races will be fought on their own merits and won or lost without regard to Riley's presumed margin of victory. None of the data I have seen indicates an across the board Repub sweep. Alabama voters are accustomed to splitting tickets just as they did for Steve Windom and Bill Pryor in 1998 during a (Don) Siegelman landslide over Fob James.
Just my two cents."
FCE, retired newsman: "Not at all (surprised). I'd say they all have their base fully intact. I don't see those races finishing much different. Except, we just don't know what the black vote will do. They are very ticked at Tyson and they damn sure don't want the Democrat sheriff (nominee Matt Tew). GOP sheriff nominee (Sam) Cochran is courting them and going for 75 percent of the vote. He might get it if the blacks punish the Dems for kicking DaVon Grey off."
YTW, political/media consultant: "Yes, (I'm surprised). My first inclination was one of disbelief, especially given Tyson’s weak performance in the primary.
If those numbers are anything like accurate, it means that King might have broad support but very shallow support … in other words, “King is OK, but I’d vote for someone better if someone better came along.”
TXF, Democratic official: "Not surprised at all actually. If the gubernatorial candidate had not lost her way, I believe Tyson's and Folsom's numbers would be higher. I believe the Repubs still don't trust Riley after the "taxes for Jesus" debacle. With Luther Strange mirroring Riley, it's not easy for them to stomach and Troy King is way too similar to Ralph Reed. November 7 may be a great night for Dems. My attitude has changed considerably from a week ago.
My greatest hope is that (Democratic juvenile judge nominee Chip) Herrington pulls it off locally. He has worked harder than ANY candidate. Matt Tew would be second in the hard work arena.
Tyson and Folsom have come on strong. Tyson should have swung at Bishop State earlier and harder. It would have helped him tremendously. That is a safe Democratic seat and there is no evidence to date that Dr. (Yvonne) Kennedy has done anything wrong except for being uninformed of her co-workers activities. It speaks more of her leadership abilities than her ethics up to this point."
SBC, attorney and political philosopher/strategist: "No (not surprised). I feel that Riley has made no mistakes since the ill-fated tax matter and Baxley has no money. That race seems to be over.
Lt Gov and AG races reflect each party’s hard core. The remainder is the independent vote which leans Republican. The Repubs will win both unless the Dems bear the burden of proof. The key question each Dem must answer to get the vote of the independent undecided is: what are you going to do that will make my life better?
No answers yet."
MTL, lobbyist/lawyer: "I think (state Supreme Court Democratic chief justice nominee) Sue Bell Cobb has the best ads. They make me want to get my hymnal and sing!
Yes, I was surprised about the results for King and Tyson also."
WEV, lawyer/lobbyist: "I didn't really pay attention to the AG numbers. The Lt. Gov. numbers are different from the other numbers I have seen with Folsom having between a six and 15 point lead. I would anticipate a tightening if Luther goes negative. Riley's numbers will help, but not enough if it doesn't tighten.
(Almost simultaneously with the above comment came a launching of a Strange ad attacking Folsom as a 'liberal.')
"Luther's attack was a mistake, in my estimation. It sounded like canned rhetoric. It lacked punch. It also lessens the impact of the ethics attacks that do have punch. It was a wasted attack ... and worse it diminished the real attack. Ultimately, Luther will go after Folsom, but it may be too late and this attack will lessen the impact of the one that counts."
GAE, politically active real estate executive: "I don't know about Tyson and King. King is just not well known by the voters. Following lightening rods like Pryor, Sessions, Seigelman and (Charlie) Graddick, King is almost nameless and faceless. I don't think that the closeness of that race has anything to do with Tyson. He has been invisible also.
I suspect that the trouncing of (GOP Lt. Gov. contender George) Wallace by Strange was a Republican thing. The I-65 corridor was generally well informed. However, I think that contest went right over the heads of those who did not vote in that primary. I doubt that much of Strange's expenditures in the primary raised awareness of him with Democrats. Thus, to Alabama's 28 percent black voters and the other Democrats, Folsom is the more familiar name. That is not good news for Strange with the election four weeks away. However, with Lucy gaining zero traction and nothing anywhere else on the ballot, I suspect that Riley's popularity could provide the margin to Strange and King.
Tyson has been working extremely hard.
I still remember Folsom beating an incumbent U. S. Senator, when he really didn't want to in 1980."
PSD, former appointee in a Democratic administration: "I'm not at all surprised at those poll numbers. I think that both Folsom and Tyson have real chances to win. Of course, Riley will roll up Baxley. I'm not sure why Lucy even attempted a run. She couldn't possibly have believed that she had a shot. Egos are great equalizers."
KRD, Republican state legislator: "The experts in these things (which does not include me) tell me that voters tend to be pretty soft in their support for down the ballot races until about two to three weeks out. So, while the Governor's race numbers are probably pretty accurate (although I don't think Riley's ultimate margin will be 25 points), the media barrage of the next four weeks will change the numbers in the other races, in some cases pretty dramatically.
State-wide, that will help the R's because they have the money to do it and a very popular incumbent R governor to help (and he's about to start doing that in a big way) and the D's are not quite as strong there.
On the legislative races, it's really a district-by-district thing. Those races are turning out to be much more competitive for us across the state than I originally thought based on our polling numbers to date. In fact, if we had the money, I think we could take the Senate outright. We don't have the money, though, and so I doubt we'll be able to do that.
Two weeks from now, we'll begin to know alot more about these other races. But the Governor's race is clearly over and the D's are telling me they know it."
WMJ, lobbyist/former Democratic legislator: "No real surprises based on what I am hearing out of Montgomery.
Lucy just has not listened to a lot of folks and has missed opportunities, i.e: sales tax holiday. The Legislature came up with the idea several years ago but didn't get it passed, passed it this year and Riley jumped out front and took credit and people think he did it.
Hurricane coverage: She called me a few days after storm, I told her to get down there and get a photo op like Condi Rice!! She didn't do it. Followed up with her on "other hurricane issues" and they did not follow up. Also, she is not talking to the black leaders on a regular basis from what I hear. Check with (Mobile Mayor) Sam Jones.
Boy, are the Repubs going to get a big surprise! (State Sen.) Lowell (Barron) wins even if (state Sen. Gary) Tanner and (state Sen. Pat) Lindsey get beat. I think the Repubs and the Demos don't think this is going to happen but, from the numbers I have seen Lowell still would have 18.
Where did you get the 41-41 on Tanner/Brooks? (Actually, 41.8-41.8).
Now that I think of it, there was one surprise in the polls -- Nancy Worley leading!
Also, the King people are worried. Some of his big supporters are concerned about the Washington mess and think this could have a big effect in November unless something changes. This could be the unknown factor. Look at 1994!
P.S. Folsom will win.
LST, Republican ex-legislator: "I've learned my political opinion isn't worth much but I was told Folsom is actually leading.
Troy was always going to have a tough fight. Remember he came in third in a three-man primary for Secretary of State in 2002.
The big question I have is if the African American (vote) will in the end forgive Tyson for his prosecution of Dave Thomas or will they roll over on him like they did to Siegelman.
I would like to point out the article about legislators employed by the two year system does not include the legislators employed by K-12 and or their spouses nor does it cover the legislators and or their spouses employed by a four-year school."
RGJ, attorney/politico: "The light gov race (surprises me) and the spin I hear from Republicans surprises me a bit.
They all seem shocked that LS is tied with JF, Jr.
My view is that the poll shows just how weak JF is. To many voters JF is an incumbent -- still in office -- a known entity. Forty-three percent at this point for JF, Jr. is low. He will have a harder time picking up the necessary undecided's than (will) LS.
I believe that the governor will have some level of "coattails" that may put LS over the top. Baxley's campaign is a mess and I think that hurts JF, Jr. in the end.
Have you seen any polling in the Tanner and/or Lindsey races? I have not.
BVU, plaintiffs' lawyer: "Not really (surprised).
Here are my predictions:
Riley
Folsom
(Kay) Ivey, (incumbent GOP state treasurer.)
Tyson
Jury's still out on Worley and (incumbent GOP state Supreme Court Chief Justice Drayton) Nabers. I say Nabers probably loses.
Dems retain control of both the House and the Senate.
Nationally:
Dems take control of one or both bodies of Congress. It may be a draw in the Senate with (Joe) Lieberman casting the key votes (particularly on organization).
In Florida, it's (GOP gubernatorial nominee Charlie) Crist; all Dems lose statewide elections except AG, Skip Campbell wins that one."
