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For political 'junkies,'
Tuesday was 'super'

By Chip Drago
Mobile Bay Times
Super Tuesday has come and gone, and if it wasn't everything it was cracked up to be, well then, you're a political glutton because enough occurred in the parties' presidential races, both expected and unexpected, to satisfy any reasonable political appetite.

The cast of characters is diminished. Roles are redefined. Some lines in Acts 3 and 4 need tweaking. And the play goes on. 

There has been enough drama and uncertainty over the past few months that drawing too many conclusions from the results of Super Tuesday's voting, while hugely tempting, would seem a risky endeavor.

Alas, it is all too tempting, as MBT discovered on turning to its gallery of area politicos.

"It seems to me now that (Mitt) Romney has dropped out, that (Mike) Huckabee may make a late run at the nomination on the Republican side. There is no doubt that (John) McCain benefited from the split among the Romney, Huckabee voters. If Huckabee can unite the fiscal conservatives and the moral conservatives, I think he has an outside shot at catching McCain. It may be easier said than done, however.

Romney may be jockeying for a number two spot on the ticket by withdrawing, thereby ingratiating himself to McCain, even though it has appeared that the two of them didn't particularly like each other.

The Democrats appear to have once again reduced the field to candidates that do very little for me. The media has given (Barack) Obama a pass and are treating him as a rock star. No one has been willing to pin him down so the voters can know what kind of person he really is. He appears to be very superficial. Hillary (Clinton), on the other hand, doesn't fire me up either.

I think what will be important to local politics is the long term affects. An Obama nomination will bring out black voters in numbers beyond imagination, making it possible to elect Democrats to some positions heretofore held by Republicans. It may also tend to drive the few whites who call themselves Democrats out into the cold. It has already become almost impossible for a white candidate to win in a Democratic primary. This forces candidates to run as a Republican for fear of being beaten in the primary. (the Joe Debrow effect.)

The prospect of an Obama presidency, in my opinion, tends to further divide state and local politics in Alabama. This statement isn't about race, it's about electability.

Someone like me who sees the Republicans often as pawns of the Oil, Insurance, Drug and Banking industries, and Democrats always looking for another social program to wrap their arms around, has nowhere to go.

It seems like the rich are getting richer, the poor are being cared for, with folks in the middle like me, paying for all of it.

Maybe one day there will be a candidate running for President who will actually consider those of us who are neither rich nor poor, but seem to be called upon to sacrifice the most. Let's hope so."
-- Dale Mims,
real estate broker, Mobile

"It's safe to say that McCain will be the Republican nominee; his VP selection may be interesting.

Clinton did well on Tuesday, and maintained her lead, but Obama is very much contending. Due to the proportional process of dividing delegates in each Congressional district and the use of super delegates, both candidates were able to gain delegates -- sometimes more than the winner in a particular state -- even though the other may have received more votes statewide.

The Democratic race will not be decided for weeks to come, perhaps not until the convention.  It will be extremely important for the candidates to remain focused on the issues and not to engage in negative, personal attacks."
-- Mike Box,
attorney and former Democratic state legislator, Saraland

"I think the Demo race is over and Hillary has won, this according to my 88-year-old Uncle Lee who has never had a good word to say for her and now thinks 'she makes more sense than any of them.' This along with Chatom's (my hometown) first Mardi Gras parade is a sure sign the Apocalypse is upon us."
-- Ed Massey,
attorney, Mobile

"The interesting questions are who the running mates will be. How about Bob Riley for McCain? I couldn't predict the Demo winner, but my bones feel that it'll be Obama, only if he hasn't peaked yet. Clinton certainly has enough time to regain momentum."
-- Mark Berson,
former state tourism director

"I was a little surprised how quickly Romney dropped out of the race. I think McCain had it won after Tuesday, but I thought Romney would have hung in a little longer.

From an Alabama perspective, the R's had more people vote in the primary which was interesting. I would have thought the D's presidential battle would have turned out more than the relatively mild R contest. The fact that McCain only won one third of an Alabama Republican crowd can't be very comforting to his supporters."
-- Armand Dekeyser,
Washington, D.C., political consultant

"So far, the Republican base is not too excited about the candidates.

They need to work on that."
-- Les Barnett,
GOP official and former (Rudy) Giuliani supporter, Mobile

"It appears that the Republicans are going to come out of Super Tuesday in great shape with Mitt getting out of the race and John and Mike being 'good friends.' The rest of the contest for them should be a love fest.

Obama and Clinton will keep chopping at each other for the next two months or so before one of them gives up. If it goes to the Democratic Convention without a clear cut winner, I would look for some good entertainment on TV from them. If that happens, the Democrats will get a big boost coming out of the convention for the general election but I believe the Republicans will make hay while the sun shines from all the things that the Democrats said and did to each other in the campaign.

It is going to be fun to watch."
-- George Callahan,
former GOP state senator, Theodore

"I am waiting for the official count before I can draw solid conclusions. I will say that the great turn-out for the Dem's bodes well for us."
-- Skip Brutkiewicz,
Democratic attorney, Mobile

"I believe Obama can win. The Repub right is not going to field a candidate that can defeat him. The only person that can beat Obama is Clinton and that is only due to her superior machine and the head start she had in setting the table. Hillary will lose the general if she is the nominee.

A McCain/Huckabee ticket will be more pleasant than Clinton/? and will attract the deep middle pool of voters. Obama has energized the electorate so turnout will be heavy with uncommitted middle voters.
Obama is my odds on favorite at this time."
-- Elliot Maisel,
businessman, Mobile

"Obama is all over Clinton in Mobile County, but Clinton prevails in Baldwin county. This certainly confirms what Baldwin County juries have been telling me over the last few years, the percentage of blacks in Baldwin is declining. Too many lawyers and accountants moving over from Mobile. My wife and I voted for Hillary, our three kids voted for Obama. As a Democrat, I found the totals (Republican votes vs. Democratic votes) to be hopeful. A lot of people voted in the Democratic election who formerly voted on the other side. A lot of voters found it easier to vote for a black than for a woman. Not just any woman, but a strong and vocal woman.

Nationwide, there are a lot of kids voting. I attribute this to the internet and all of the spinoff vehicles and disgust with the war.

When he first began running, McCain was not scary, really a breath of fresh air, compared to Bush. He was independent, vocal about the genesis of the war and the 'reasons' for it. It was not just the lack of factual underpinning -- there was no factual underpinning -- but worse the reasons were carefully constructed lies fueled by ideology and an 1800's era colonial mentality. Somehow, McCain has lost any sense of independence and is a converted hawk. Sure, he attracts the centrist and radical right, but they were going to vote for McCain or not vote at all.

I think Hillary needs Obama more than Obama needs Hillary. Obama could submerge his ego to run as VP; I doubt Hillary could ever do that.

I'm sorry Romney is out. He was such a joke. A lifelong hunter who never bought a license. A rodent hunter. Wait till they come out with the campaign commercials of Romney when he ran against Ted Kennedy for Senate in Massachusetts. He tried to out 'choice' Ted Kennedy, if you can believe that. He actually tried to bring abortion rights under the Republican umbrella of respect for personal rights and protecting the sanctity of a woman's body fighting the intrusion of government into her body. Phony ..., but funny in doing so."
-- Richard Horne,
Democratic attorney

"... I would enjoy the irony if events played out in such a way that Alabama would have had more stick if it had stuck with a June primary. I always felt that moving the primary up was more for the benefit of party functionaries and elected officials who got to hobnob with the candidates, than it was a benefit for the state as a whole.

Furthermore, I don't think it is (generally) in Alabama Democrats' interest to have Alabama voters paying attention to national Democratic politics.  This year may be the exception, but generally speaking, Dems running in tough districts have to run away from national Democratic politics. Look and see if Democratic election performance percentages statewide aren't 8-10 percent lower in presidential election years."
-- Wade Perry,
labor representative, Mobile

"... with today’s events I believe we are on the verge of the McCain/Huckabee ticket I have been predicting for a while. (Does that sound like a ? lead-in or what?)  I think Huck will feign the fight to secure his prominence and I think he and McCain have been careful to attack each other over the last few months. My sense has been that Huck was running for second place all along on the theory that any frontrunner would need a Southern social conservative to be competitive.

The pounding McCain has taken from the right over the past few weeks leading up to Super Tuesday will stop so fast radio audiences will suffer auditory whiplash.

When he shifts the race to the contrast between his military service and either Hillary Clinton's or Barack Obama’ activism, I think the middle will come home to roost with McCain. Security will be the issue regardless of the mainline media’s insistence that the economy is paramount with voters. As fuel prices begin to fall, anxiety regarding recession will begin to lift. I expect some 'benchmarks' will be met in Iraq proving that progress has been made. I would not be surprised if Pakistan relents on not allowing US forces from entering to pursue (Osama) Bin Laden and we begin to lay some heavy stuff on 'strong-holds' along the Pakistani/Afghani border.

I have been convinced since hearing him speak last summer that if McCain was the last man standing and gets to remind everyone of what he went through, then he will be tough for the Dems to beat. I think the combo of McCain and Huckabee could be pretty formidable in debates and on the stump. I don’t think Repubs will be biting their nails and wringing their hands near as much as worrying what may come out of 'W' off the cuff."
-- Mark Erwin,
attorney, GOP chairman, Mobile County

"As a Democrat, I am pleased with the candidates, U.S. Senators Clinton and Obama, who are still standing after an exhaustive and expensive year-long campaign.

Finally, after all the millions of dollars spent, all those endless debates, the voters in selected states (including Alabama) had a chance to vote, and vote they did.

In Alabama the majority of Democratic voters selected Mr. Obama. But according to press reports it is Ms. Clinton who will get a majority of the Alabama delegates. One of Clinton’s supporters credited that majority to the 'super-delegates,' party leaders, donors, or public officials, elected by the party’s state executive committee, but NOT elected by primary voters. That’s not right.
 
Many pundits and political buffs think the contest between Clinton and Obama will end in a virtual tie. The New York Times conservative columnist and contributor, David Brooks, commented on the probable status of the Democratic race at the time of the national convention:

But it’ll still be tied after all that. The superdelegates will pick the nominee — the party honchos, the deal-makers, the donors, the machine. Swinging those people takes a level of cynicism even Dr. Retail (Mr. Brooks) can’t pretend to understand. That’s Tammany Hall. That’s the court at Versailles under Louis XIV.

A bit of a stretch, but a good point nevertheless. And a design for disaster, if you are a Democrat.
 
When the nominee is a 'given' long before the convention, it is just fine to give seat and voice to those big shots at the convention -- let them enjoy the fun, the recognition and the parties. They have paid for it, often in money, party loyalty, and hard work over the years. But don’t let them vote.

We Democrats, as usual, have our problems, but, fortunately for us, so do the Republicans. They have managed to divide the 'true conservative' vote between Governors Huckabee and Romney. Left standing is the maverick Senator McCain, described by some of the Limbaugh dittoheads as a 'turncoat mole.' McCain is faced with stinging opposition from such conservative commentators and leaders as


When the dust settles, the Americans will have a real choice between two patriotic Americans. Many issues divide us. For me, a veteran of WWII and the Korean War, with a son-in-law and granddaughter in the U.S. Army, the most important one is the war in Iraq. It is time to end the billions of dollars and thousands of lives that have been and are still being sacrificed in this war. It is past time for the Iraqis to defend their own country. It is time for us and our allies to expand in earnest the war against terror in Afghanistan, Pakistan and throughout the world. It is not time as Senator McCain has said to plan to stay in Iraq for 'a hundred years.'

That is why I will proudly cast my vote for the Democratic candidate whether Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama.

(By the way in case some of our well-educated Republicans don’t know it, the word 'Democrat' is not an adjective. It is a noun. The adjective form is 'Democratic.' Look it up. Or does it really matter any more what kind of English we speak!)"
-- Lew Odom,
attorney, retired, Mobile

"Momentum is obviously with Obama on the Democratic side, given the sweep of the Saturday primaries. I do not think even the Clinton dynasty can stop him at this point. The kids in college now were at best in junior high school when Bill Clinton handed the keys to the Whitehouse over to Bush eight years ago. The fight of old versus new will clearly favor if not carry Obama over Hillary in the end.

Turning to November, the record turn out of newly-registered, first time and African American voters as well as Hispanics across the country does not bode well for McCain. Separate and apart, I did not think it was possible but the Republicans have hitched their horse to a candidate with even less charisma than the ill-advised Democratic '04 selection of John Kerry. I guarantee Obama (or for that matter Hillary if the worm turns back in her favor) will eviscerate McCain in the debates.

Look no further than the recent mass exodus from Congress by all Repubs who have decided to “retire” to see the November writing on the wall. Get ready for the Democrats to take the Whitehouse and significantly extend their control of Congress in November regardless of the ultimate winner of the Democratic Party nomination."
-- Steve Moore,
attorney, Mobile

"Since the opening of (the legislative) session on Tuesday, I have not given much thought to the Presidential Primaries. The results were what I expected."
-- Rusty Glover,
state senator, Semmes

"Super Tuesday pretty much decided the Republican contest. Even though McCain won mostly blue states, he did show strength everywhere. Huckabee had a very good night in the South, but got little traction anywhere else. Huckabee appears to be a regional candidate and Romney has bowed out, so the Republicans can now regroup around McCain and focus on November. OK, there will be fence mending, but all Republicans including conservatives know what is at stake and will follow Romney’s example and rally together for the good of the party and more importantly for the good of the country.

The Democrats have a very exciting race and it’s still too early to predict where they are headed. The dimensions of this power struggle are fascinating to watch. Of course, we Republicans are in no hurry for the Democrats to end their internecine warfare now that our battles are subsiding. The general election will not only be historic, but it will have still more surprises."
-- Pete Riehm,
Republican, retired Coast Guard commander, Mobile

"Post-super Tuesday, I still think Hillary is poised for victory as the Democratic nominee. She continues to lead the race for delegates nationwide and is leading the popular vote. I thought Arizona and Massachusetts were particularly big wins for her. California and New York were also obviously big wins. No Democratic nominee since 1984 has last both New York and California. Hillary has already won three of the six large states that will play a key role in determining the eventual nominee -- California, Florida and New York. Sen. Obama has won Illinois. Up soon are Ohio and Texas ..."
-- Vance McCrary,
attorney, Clinton supporter, Mobile

"I'm unhappy with all choices. We have two liberal, big government, big spending liberals in Clinton (who is not honest or trustworthy) or Obama (who has no national experience). Or we have Republican McCain who is just as much a liberal, big government, big spending candidate as Clinton and Obama. I seriously think our country is in trouble. Sorry to be so down. I just don't see any positives at this point."
-- Pam Millsaps,
GOP attorney, Mobile

"John McCain had a big day on Super Tuesday. He won the big delegate and traditionally 'blue states' of New York and California and even took states and delegates from Mike Huckabee in conservative Oklahoma and the state of Missouri. While the conservative vote has been split between Huckabee and Romney, McCain seems to have clear sailing to the nomination. Romney's announcement of his withdrawal from the race made at the CPAC convention today only serves to clear one more hurdle to McCain's nomination.

On the Democratic side, the surprise continues to be Barack Obama. Just a few months ago, the pundits had predicted that Hillary Clinton would have the nomination locked up by now. Obama now has the money and the momentum and will give Hillary problems all the way to the convention."
-- Jody Bishop,
district judge, Baldwin County

"I have been so busy I have not really thought about it other than I continue to be pleased with the support for Obama.

I will say that I was not as impressed as some with the Ted Kennedy endorsement. It served to energize the Clinton folks in Massachusetts. I think the pundits remain surprised at the increasing number of white votes that Obama keeps getting. However, the Clinton strategy of women, women, women continues to work and in my mind she still is the frontrunner.

McCain is amazing in that he just would not go away. The far right continues to attack him and I just don't understand that but then again I don't understand them. I like his integrity and straight forward approach in campaigning. What will be interesting is to see in what direction he moves in the selection of a running mate. Doesn't it have to be someone like Huckabee?"
-- Reggie Copeland Jr.
attorney, Mobile

"It's above my pay grade."
-- Rick Heartsill,
political consultant, Birmingham

"... the buzz is whether the Dems will have a brokered convention.  Personally, now that McCain has it locked up, I think more Dems who don't want to see the party have a squabble will try and push it toward Obama. On the other hand, I don't think a long primary season is all that bad for the Dems. Keeps them in the news. I don't see any Dems not voting this November, no matter what happens."
-- Henry Brewster,
Democratic attorney, Mobile

"Still anyone's race on the Democratic side. It may all come down to a convention battle for who gets the nomination. I haven't seen a race this exciting in my lifetime. As far as the Republicans, come from behind former underdog John McCain seems to be running off with it. Somewhat of a surprise there, but he seems to have the most widespread appeal to Republicans all over the country. (Even though Huckabee won Alabama, McCain had a great showing in Mobile and Baldwin counties.)

And that's all I have to say about that."
-- Amy Andrews,
Democratic attorney, Mobile

"I think it’s shaping up very well for the Republicans.

Hillary and Obama are in a dead heat, and this dilutes and divides the Democrats.

Howard Dean is now coming out saying that a brokered convention will be bad for the Democrats, and that the candidates need to get together before then and make some 'arrangement.' This means: 'offer Obama the Vice Presidential spot.' There is no way Obama is going into a room with Team Clinton and coming out with an agreement that he get the top spot. Bill and Hillary Clinton will not allow that to happen.

The Clinton’s are fighters, and Bill Clinton had it right -- Barack Obama won South Carolina because he is black, just like Jesse Jackson won there. Sure Clinton got slugged for saying it (mainly from black politicians), but it’s absolutely true. Obama is certainly not winning races because of his years of leadership he has given to the country.

Hillary Clinton on the top of the ticket is pretty much the one thing that can get conservatives, disillusioned with McCain, out to vote (more against Hillary than for McCain).

I think McCain is positioned perfectly. He has a compelling personal story, and a record of working across the aisle to get things done.

Giuliani dropping out, endorsing him, and standing next to him as (Arnold) Schwarzenegger endorsed McCain was an interesting picture. Was it a signal? Might he be the choice for VP?

Now that Romney has dropped out, McCain seems to be rolling. I think he is our next president. 

Will he be any good? Who the hell knows. But the picture of him lying on a cot, bones all broken, but looking defiant, in the Hanoi Hilton, is very moving, and, if you’re his opponent, how do you counter that?  Hard to fathom …"
-- Kelly McGriff,
GOP attorney, Baldwin County

"It looks like McCain will be the Republican nominee and, despite what some hopeful people think, I don't see Huckabee as the VP nominee.

The Democrats seem to have some serious momentum and will make the Republicans defend the South, though Haley Barbour was correct the other night on TV when he said that if a Republican can't win the states in this part of the country, he is in real trouble.

While I will support the party's nominee, I don't see either Clinton or Obama carrying many, if any, of the Southern states.

Obama seems to have the two essentials to get the nomination --momentum and money, but you can never count out the Clinton's.

I voted early last Wednesday and voted for (John) Edwards before his announcement. I might have voted for him anyway, but we shall never know."
-- Al Pennington,
Democratic attorney, Mobile

"Mobile County Primary voters clearly expressed their hopes for new national leadership. Democrats outvoted Republicans in Mobile County, bucking recent trends in our area. The election results demonstrate that Mobile County is far from being one-party territory. Instead, most of our citizens are political independents, who don’t hesitate to alter course when necessary. The message to public officials is that Mobile area voters are not to be taken for granted."
-- Adam Bourne,
Democrat, Mobile

"It appears to me that Hillary Clinton's base has left her. It looks like Barack Obama wins fairly easily from here.

She is apparently out of money, loaning her campaign money, can't raise money. He, on the other hand, must be turning donations down, telling people he doesn't need money.

I'm still stunned John McCain has made this miraculous comeback. I felt all along it would be Mitt Romney, and if not him, Rudy Guiliani.

From here, November looks like a down-to-the-last-vote sort of election, but we're becoming sort of accustomed to that these days. The votes should go about the same as they've been going, with the Republican pulling out a close victory."
-- Eddie Menton,
ex-journalist, Mobile

"Romney's departure will probably mean that McCain is going to have to out-evangelize the faithful, maybe even making some room for Huckabee in his little pup tent (Veep?). That might still work to Obama's favor because when it all comes down to it, the issue for the voters is going to be that whoever gets elected President will have to work with the Democratically controlled Congress, a fascinating train wreck we have witnessed now for some years.

The election came out better than I had been expecting about two weeks ago, but I had secretly hoped for an upset. Obama did shorten the distance and put out there exactly the message that he wants to emphasize: don't put the voters in the general election in the position of choosing the 'same ol,' same ol.' Choose an inspirational vision for the country.

I got a chuckle over the whole issue about what segment of the Democratic base is supporting whom. I heard one guy talking about Obama's 'Latino Problem' because he had only gotten X% of the Latino vote. I thought the question that the pundits were missing was 'How much of the [Black, Latino, yuppie, etc] vote is [plug in the name of the Republican candidate] getting?' Let's face it, once the field is settled, there is nowhere for the Evangelicals, Latinos or whoever to go but with their guy (or gal). They're going to have to dance with the one what brung them.

For the Republicans in the primaries it has meant choosing from the least objectionable form of the 'same ol' same ol'.' This has meant nothing but good news for McCain because Huckabee as their candidate seems creepily like Bush warmed over. But now that McCain looks like he's going to get the nomination and Obama's candidacy has shown some resilience, his message -- that the election can be about the past or the future and that more of the 'same ol' same ol' may cost us the election -- has started resonating with the party apparatus."
-- Dom Soto,
Democratic attorney, Mobile

"No, nothing has changed, as I still have Hillary as the favorite over Obama for the Democratic nomination."
-- Danny Sheridan,
political/sporting oddsmaker

"Our base is energized; the Republicans are eating their own.

Obama has created a rising tide which will crescendo into a tidal wave. (U.S. Sen. Jeff) Sessions and (U.S. Rep. Jo) Bonner would sweat with him at the top of our ticket."
-- Brad Warren,
chairman, Mobile County Democratic Party

"I see some interesting dynamics on the Dems side with the Hispanic and Black Votes. I think they could end up dividing the party after the primaries are over. With a Clinton win, more Blacks become Republican; with an Obama win, more Hispanics going over. 

McCain's dirty laundry will come up and hurt him (something sticks in my mind about him being one of (the Keating) five in the S&L crisis back in the mid-80's, I think he almost lost his seat). Huckabee is a long shot but until he drops out, if he stays until the convention, he may get it, even though McCain has more delegates. We may even see a decent third party candidate jump in. One thing is for sure it's going to be interesting!"
-- Bob James,
Baldwin County roadbuilder

"The primaries are over but we will have to endure six months of made up drama on Fox and CNN – personally I’m hoping they air the trial of OJ or Vandersloot.

The analyses I did early on were really to help predict the future and guide where things were going back when the fog was thick. There really isn’t any reason to spend time on that level of analysis at this point beyond knowing what happened in the past. I have looked at it, and can tell you it was nearly exactly as I laid it out before.

If there is anyone, who after seeing the results of the past week, still thinks there is need for further debate or analysis, they need to drop politics and take up an interest in something like pet rocks.

It is clear that the Democrats will have an open convention and the Republicans will be holding hands in line waiting to take pictures sandwiched between the nominees and their cardboard stand up of Reagan.”
-- Jon Gray,
political consultant, Mobile

"I think the only word to describe the current political landscape is -- wow! We are on the precipice of watching a unique general election campaign unfold ... I think it is safe to say that John McCain has secured the Republican nomination and I continue to feel that Barack Obama has the momentum and the support to take the Democratic slot. 

But regardless of who takes the Democratic nod it is understood that a viable minority candidate, for the most powerful position in the world, is history in the making. But on a smaller scale I find it very interesting to see the Republican base nominate a 'moderate' Republican -- as it is obvious that a moderate Republican is the polar opposite of President Bush.

Let me preface this next statement with: I believe Bill Clinton was a wonderul President who made poor decisions regarding his personal life. But with that being said, in 2000, I think that many of the moderates felt betrayed by President Bill Clinton's moral indiscretions and they fled to the Conservative Christian mentality often portrayed by the Republican candidates. Now after eight tumultuous years with President George W. Bush this base of moderates is coming out in numbers never seen before, saying, 'We want change and we will not stand for anything less!' And these moderates are on both party tickets.

Bottom line: I think what we should all take from the past 16 years (and even further back than 16 years but Clinton and G. W. Bush are the only two I remember clearly) of Presidential history is that neither Democrats nor Republicans are perfect. That in the end the President of the United States of America is only human and that they will make mistakes.

Once the nominees are finalized I think the general election will come down to, which candidate can invigorate the moderate base, pleading for change, enough to show up at the polls?"
-- Anna Pennington,
recent college graduate
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