A Savage Whirl
Ex-Browns GM Phil Savage on Tim Tebow,
Mount Cody, other Alabama & Auburn players
& the future of the NFL
By Chip Drago
Mobile Bay Times
Football star, Christian role model and heart-throb Tim Tebow wowed the throngs who descended on Fairhope earlier this week when the charismatic quarterback took the field for the Senior Bowl South team's first practice, but as the passing drills progressed some onlookers were left muttering, "Looks like Tarzan, throws like Jane."
Football expert and Fairhopian Phil Savage was one of the NFL savvy pro's who were left slack-jawed at Tebow's throwing motion.
Speaking to the Sunrise
Rotary Club in Mobile earlier
this week, Savage said
seeing Tebow on television
doesn't do justice to the
Rube Goldberg-esque
mechanics of the Tebow
toss. After years of watching
hundreds of NFL-level quarterbacks
in person and on film, Savage said watching Tebow live left him speechless.
"He has this long motion, probably the same one he had when he was a little kid and picked up a rock to throw at a stop sign," said Savage. "That throwing motion, when you (a scout) see it in person, it shocks you."
Even some of the young teenage girls who squealed their delight and pledged their troth with banners to herald Tebow's arrival Monday in Fairhope were seen rolling up the posters and trudging toward the parking lot after watching Tebow spray one hideous and inaccurate pass after another during the workout, Savage chuckled. Tebow's Tuesday session was a big improvement but the memory of Monday left a mark, said Savage.
A former general
manager of the Cleveland
Browns and now color
commentator for radio
broadcasts of the
Alabama Crimson Tide,
Savage said Tebow has a
future in the NFL,
although it is
problematic. It is
important to note,
said Savage, that only one team has to envision an effective role for one of college football's all-time greats during his glorious, four-year run with the twice national champion Florida Gators. But most NFL teams will see Tebow as a square peg in the round hole that is today's professional game. The pro game calls for quarterbacks to make plays from the pocket, said Savage. Tebow excels by making plays when he breaks outside of the pocket. Moreover, Tebow's elongated, time-it-with-a-sundial release will allow NFL defensive backs, while awaiting the ball's arrival, to play rock/paper/scissors to determine who gets to intercept the Tebow pass.
"I mean no disrespect but his game and his strengths at Florida, well, 80 percent doesn't translate to the NFL," said Savage.
Savage said he admires Tebow and has no doubt that Tebow's religious faith and commitment to doing good in the world are genuine. While his strengths as a person are many, so are his shortcomings as an NFL caliber quarterback, said Savage.
"I'm just not sure how accurate a passer he is," said Savage.
While Tebow may have completed a high percentage of his passes at Florida, how many were shovel passes or quick flare passes, said Savage. Savage said Tebow looked like the type of passer who would complete about 40 percent of his passes in an NFL offense, a woeful and unacceptable rate.
Tebow is an adept short-yardage runner with a nose for the end zone, a winner and a coachable player whose throwing motion could possibly be adjusted and refined to match up with the speed of NFL defenses, Savage allowed.
"Tebow has to convince only one guy (that he's worth a top draft pick)," Savage said. "He doesn't have to convince all the teams and Phil Savage."
Savage pegs Tebow as a third round pick, give or take a round.
Savage said he sees three possible outcomes for Tebow as the NFL conducts its evaluation of him:
- A) A team picks Tebow and develops a third down, "Tebow package" while working to develop him as an NFL model quarterback.
- B) A team picks him with a plan to spend three or four years making him into an NFL quality quarterback. The flaw with Plan B, said Savage, is the acceleration of the game and the impatience of ownership and fans for results, yesterday if possible. No longer do coaches or general managers have three or four years to bring about a result. Often, they are either promoted or fired within 3-4 years, he said. "To invest three or four years to develop a player, just doesn't happen anymore," said Savage.
- C) Tebow moves to another position, probably as a short yardage runner and/or an H-back blocking and catching short passes out of the backfield.
Savage said the next three or four months will not be easy ones for Tebow. His days of praise will be replaced with doubt and scorn. College pressure is one thing, pro pressure is a whole 'nother swamp: lose the mistakes or it's later, Gator.
On other Senior Bowl and football-related topics, Savage said:
- Terrence Cody, Alabama's celebrated nose guard a/k/a "Mount Cody," has launched his professional career with foreboding. Weighing in here at 370 pounds after playing the season at 355 suggests that Cody may lack the self-discipline to warrant risking a high and high-dollar draft pick.
"If he weighs 370 at the end of January, where will he be at the end of February (at the NFL combine workouts)?" asked Savage.
If Cody weighs 380-385 in February, his stock and draft standing will sink, Savage said. The equation is simple: the heavier Cody is, the less stamina he will have, the fewer snaps he can play, the less value he has to a team, Savage explained.
Dependability ranks right up their with ability as far as the NFL is concerned, said Savage.
- Alabama cornerback Javier Arenas: "At 5'8, 185 lbs., he looks like a middleweight boxer," said Savage. His kick and punt return skills help to offset his height in projecting his draft position.
- Alabama offensive guard Mike Johnson, at 6'5, a little tall for a guard but lacking the athleticism to play tackle in the NFL. Still, probably the best lineman on the South team. A middle rounder.
- Alabama runningback Roy Upchurch, "a sleeper for somebody." Late rounds or free agent. Has a variety of skills suited to a role in the NFL. History of injuries a concern.
- Alabama placekicker Leigh Tiffin, probably won't be drafted because it usually takes kickers three or four years bouncing from one team to another before they are able to "make their mark."
- Auburn running back Ben Tate, the question is his pure speed. Pretty good at everything, but real good at nothing. Fourth or fifth round pick.
- Auburn defensive end Antonio Coleman, a "tweener," at 6'1, 255 lbs., undersized as a defensive end, but not athletic enough to stand up as a linebacker. Not a high pick, but will be drafted.
The Super Bowl between the Colts and the Saints:
- Savage said he is familiar with the Saints, having taken up Saints GM MIckey Loomis on his offer to visit the Saints' complex during the season. Savage said about once a month he traveled to New Orleans to watch film. He said the Saints acquired a good vibe beginning in summer camp and he believes it stemmed from Gregg Williams' arrival as the Saints' new defensive coordinator. Their ball-hawking ways on defense and the compatibility between Coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees are the two special qualities that make the Saints a Super Bowl team, said Savage.
Nevertheless, the Colts will beat the Saints, said Savage.
The reason? "No. 18," said Savage, meaning Colt quarterback Peyton Manning.
Savage said coaches break down of film of the Colts and remark, "They aren't that good. We can beat these guys." After the game, when they lost, the analysis is completed, "... but for No. 18."
"The Colts will just find a way to win," said Savage. "The leadership of Peyton Manning is just overwhelming. I do think it will be a competitive game, a great game, but the Colts will find a way to win. They won't turn it over like the Vikings did."
Savage just shook his head over aging Vikings' QB Brett Favre. That Favre went the entire season without falling prey to his bugaboo, the untimely interception, merely suggested that he was due and, in fact, events so proved. Favre's fatal interception where he rolled right and threw back across his body to mid-field and was intercepted, thwarting a likely Viking win on a late field goal, was frightful. Junior high school quarterbacks can expect a good butt-chewing after a mistake like that, said Savage. Nevertheless, the Vikings will want Favre back next year. And Favre, whose NFL approach isn't much different from his muddy backyard grab and growl commercial for Wrangler blue jeans, will have to weigh his love for the game against the beating his 41-year-old body can take when he runs up against a defense like the Saints.
- Savage hopes to return as the color commentator for Alabama next year.
Savage said the Crimson Tide has the potential to be more physically talented than this past year's national champions. The biggest questions about next year's Alabama team, according to Savage, will be finding a capable punter, placekicker and snapper.
- Looming labor dispute in the NFL.
"There is a distinct possibility" of no NFL football season in 2011, he said.
With relatively new people in place at the head of the NFL Players Association and in the NFL commissioner's office, the need to prove themselves lends itself to a harder line in negotiations.
"It is a pivotal point in time for the league," said Savage.
