Oddsmaker Sheridan tags Dow favorite
for governor; political pro's skeptical
By Chip Drago
Mobile Bay Times
A nationally-known oddsmaker has installed former Mobile Mayor Mike Dow as the frontrunner to win election as Alabama's next governor.
Danny Sheridan of Mobile makes Dow an even-money bet against the field to follow Gov. Bob Riley in Montgomery.
The state's gubernatorial elections will be held in 2010.
A four-term mayor of Mobile who chose not to seek re-election in 2005, Dow himself has not dismissed talk of a run for governor in three years. He maintains that he is "keeping his powder dry" while attending to higher priorities, including the growth of his brother-in-law Jim Busby's new high tech start-up CentraLite Systems and his role in the development of a $624 million motorsports park in Prichard/Saraland.
Sheridan released the following odds:
- Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom, 6:1;
- Speaker of the House Seth Hammett, 10:1;
- Defeated GOP lieutenant governor nominee Luther Strange, 25:1;
- State Rep. and GOP chairman Mike Hubbard, 25:1;
- Newly-elected Democratic Public Service Commissioner Susan Parker, 30:1; and
- Former Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, 1,000,000,000:1.
"I have Dow the clear favorite over the entire field," said Sheridan.
Sheridan did not state whether his odds on Dow depended on the ex-mayor's party affiliation. As the non-partisan mayor of Mobile, Dow never publicly disclosed a party preference. He could, of course, take the highly unorthodox route to the governor's mansion and run as an independent. Fund-raising as a non-aligned candidate in other than extraordinary circumstances would be problematic, however.
Other Alabama politicos suggested Sheridan has not traversed the entire field, pointing to other prospective candidates such as Attorney General Troy King, state Treasurer Kay Ivey, Secretary of State Beth Chapman, U.S. Sens. Richard Shelby and Jeff Sessions, Congressmen Artur Davis and Jo Bonner, state Sen. Bradley
Byrne, Democratic state agriculture chief Ron Sparks, Tim James,
Rob Riley and others.
A number of statewide political professionals and observers contacted for their views on Sheridan's picks noted that the oddsmaker's friendship and familiarity with Dow had apparently colored his judgment.
Sheridan defended his objectivity.
"... they think I'm prejudiced, but they're dead wrong," he said. "When it comes to making odds and predictions -- my lucky profession -- I never predict what I want to happen but what I think will happen and, in Dow's case, I have inside info. He will win and should be a heavy favorite now for many reasons. Things can certainly change. If the election were held now, he'd blow away his opponents, and should be solidly favored."
Sheridan also pegged U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, to be the next president of the U.S.
Others were less certain than Sheridan, but all seemed to agree that it's never too early to talk politics.
"Sheridan might be a pro at sports, but I would not put ten cents on his political predictions. Ask him for the odds on any other 'not listed above' candidate. That's the one that I would like. How about odds-on Republican and Democrat for the office? No names, just party. Also, Dow as a Republican and Dow as a Democrat.
He's not counting Rob Riley, Tim James, or Bradley Byrne. I honestly think that there is a dark horse out there, too.
But remember he's a Dow-ite. He's doing a lot more promoting right now than he is odds making and if he's being serious then he probably needs to keep his focus on sports."
-- NSS, south Alabama political consultant
"Four years in politics is several lifetimes.
Dow makes no sense. I like Mike but he has been gravitating Democratic for some time — trial lawyer fundraiser's, etc. Also, in four years, Mike will have been out of office a long time and how he stays relevant for the next four years is hard to imagine. Unless Folsom doesn’t run for governor, I don’t see a play for Dow. How does Dow get the minority vote when Folsom is now in bed with Paul Hubbert? If Dow decides to run Republican, he might also be squeezed out. But if Folsom is in the race, it may be his only/best shot.
The only issue on Folsom is whether he will run for governor. He likes being lieutenant governor much more than governor and he can keep doing bond issues and making a good living. Nevertheless, if the stars appear lined up, (his wife) Marsha will probably force him into the governor's race.
Sheridan’s other odds are probably ok.
He left out Kay Ivey who is a possible candidate for governor/lieutenant governor.
Rob (Riley) has tons of merits on his side. Yale Law and Cambridge — visions of Bill Clinton. Smart as hell and a workaholic. Having said that, even though his name has been batted around, I would be surprised if he has an interest in being the candidate. He likes the campaign but has had very little involvement in the governing process — virtually none — despite rumors to the contrary. He has a great law practice — and four young children to feed. Again, four years is a lifetime, but if Rob has an interest, I think it would be down the road."
-- FRD, former state legislator
"Dow, even money? And Strange only 25-1? I don't think so."
-- ABP, former state GOP official
"I think Danny is taking counsel of his wishes as a good Democrat and a good friend of Mike Dow.
I don't underestimate Mike. He could be a potent candidate. I could make an argument that he might even be the favorite, BUT not so much so that he has even odds and Folsom is 6 to 1.
As for 1992, Danny liked Clinton, and by that time a Clinton victory was considered realistic if not probable. Things were very fluid. I don't take away Danny's getting it right, but it wasn't wildly off the mark of the smart money of the time.
Interesting that Artur Davis is not mentioned. I think he could well take the nomination if he ran.
Are they (persons citing Shelby's prospective interest in governor) on dope? Shelby would die. He would NEVER leave D.C. for Montgomery. He loves Washington. He could become Chairman of Appropriations if he stays. His family lives forever. So, he should be good for at least two more terms. I could go on for pages. I wonder where people get these ideas!
I can't imagine any of them (Shelby, Sessions or Bonner) leaving D.C. for Montgomery.
Jeff loves national policy issues. State issues wouldn't attract him.
Jo has a job he enjoys with prestige and security.
Shelby is an appropriator. They are never out of power. I mean this seriously. Appropriators share power across party lines. As a Ranking Member of a Subcommittee, he has a lot of power to steer money.
Furthermore, in the Senate, absent a 60-vote margin, filibusters give individual senators great influence on all issues.
Finally, from a lifestyle issue, Shelby is a man of the world. He travels widely and loves it. He is independently wealthy from his title company and apartments. So, he can live very well in D.C. He loves good food and the arts.
As I say, I could go on for a good while.
As I say, though, there is NO, NADA, ZERO chance he'd leave Washington for Montgomery.
... I'd rank these folks, particularly Shelby, leaving Washington for Montgomery akin to aliens taking possession of their bodies in order to run for governor. (Query what sort of planet would impel one to leave it in hopes of becoming the Governor of Alabama?!).
--AHD, lobbyist
"Two things come to mind.
His odds on Dow are surprising. I wonder if his long time crush on Dow is clouding his judgment? Clearly Dow is popular here in the City of Mobile, but statewide he has low name ID, he has to choose a political party, actually take a position on a few tough issues, then shore up that base, raise money outside his traditional givers, etc.. All attainable for someone with Dow's energy and focus (if he truly commits), but 1:1 at this point is way too aggressive.
Second, is the absence of Rob Riley to this list. He is looking at 2010 governor's race very seriously. His father has the chance of being quite popular at the end of his term, and this state has historically supported political families and their offspring. Gov. Riley has a stronger base than folks seem to realize -- look at his actual 2006 numbers and what he did to Roy Moore -- which has the potential of a coattail effect in 2010. Of course, if things are not going well for the governor in the 2009 time frame, the dynamic for Rob completely changes and Luther Strange becomes much stronger. My sense from a brief conversation with Luther is that he learned a great deal from his race against Folsom -- mainly that he has to stand for something, and not just run against someone. I believe he is still going to be a very attractive statewide candidate in 2010. With that said, I think Luther is more of a 12:1 horse at this point -- certainly better odds are due him than Mike Hubbard at this point.
Does Danny Sheridan think our attorney general has no shot? Or is he assuming King sits the 2010 governor's race out and runs for re-election? King acts as if he wants to be in D.C. Before 2014, I suppose one or both U.S. Senate seats will have changed hands."
-- BRL, Mobile lawyer
"Always interesting to hear his take but it is not surprising that Dow is his favorite and Democrats occupy the first three spots. I’m curious to know what factors he thinks will make the state vote Democratic for governor if the economic picture is still as good as it has been lately.
One issue we (GOP) face is not having a high profile name on the bench to run after Riley. I suppose Luther is the front runner but I would not be surprised if Mike Rogers takes a play out of the Riley playbook and leaves Congress for a run at governor. I don’t think Bonner, (U.S. Rep. Spencer) Bacchus or Aderholdt would be viable but who knows.
Seems like Dow will have a lot of work to do, having been out of the spotlight for nearly five years by 2010. Hard to imagine him getting by Folsom in the primary but I guess Sheridan knows how he will do it.
(Is) Sheridan prodding Dow to run or using his celebrity status to give Dow a jump start?"
-- LBD, GOP attorney
"I rate Folsom higher than Dow on the Democratic side. If he wants it, Folsom will have the nomination. Dow is very well known down here but is unknown outside of this area. That's fixable with enough money of course, but Folsom has the huge advantage of being an incumbent Lt. Governor. The Republican side is wide open and there is no way of predicting it at this time. Some of Luther's luster among Republicans was lost as a result of the weak and ineffective campaign against Folsom last fall. Mike Hubbard has his hands full as Party chair and I doubt will run. I agree with Danny that Roy Moore is a long shot at best. I also agree that Hillary will be the next President although it makes me sick to say that."
-- MST, Baldwin County lawyer
"I like his odds on Roy Moore. It was my first laugh of the day.
Frankly, I am surprised that Dow is a 50/50 bet, because at this point I don’t think he has the statewide name recognition that he needs to raise serious money, despite his long years in office and his remaining popularity in Mobile. Where is Rob Riley on this list? Or Shelby? Danny is a dyed in the wool Democrat, I believe, although he supported (Republican state Rep.) Jamie Ison when she and Bess Rich squared off.
I don’t know Rob Riley, only heard the talk that the governor might like to establish a dynasty. I’ve heard Rob is ambitious ..."
-- ILS, Mobile public relations/political consultant
"Danny is the prognosticator, so how can one take issue with his predictions? Personally, I think it will be an (John) Edwards- (Rudy)Giuliani race, with Edwards the winner. As for governor, if Dow enters the race, he'll win the primary if he runs as a Democrat and will probably face Hubbard (who will be a fresh face statewide with a lot of money behind him). If Dow runs as a Republican, it may be tougher to win a primary because Hubbard and Luther Strange may be in the race). Bradley Byrne is a wild card. He's a very attractive candidate."
-- PST, Baldwin County marketing executive
"I like the odds on Folsom and Strange."
-- OOD, former state senator
"I would agree with Mr. Sheridan (as far as) who he includes. Mike Dow is much more popular out of office rather than in office. I am unsure of his statewide recognition and with which party he would align himself.
I have heard many times that Senator Sessions is unhappy in Washington and eyes the Governors mansion constantly. With Republican loss of congressional power and the high probability of a Democratic White House, he may very well run (for governor) in 2010. With name recommendation and a sizable war chest, he would be the one to beat. And if Shelby retires, I could envision a Gov. Sessions and Sens. Dow and Riley.
I would agree that Sen. Clinton has the White House to lose. It will take a strong Republican governor to beat her. I can't think of one. (Barack) Obama won't even get a VP nod or cabinet position in a Clinton White House."
-- UCD, Democratic Party official
"I have long wondered what party Mike Dow would run under. I know a great deal about one, and know he would have no chance in that primary. Perhaps he could pass as a Democrat, but I am not really qualified to say.
As for Mike's true political colors, to the best of my knowledge, the Social Democrats are strongest in the Western European Nations (France, Germany, etc.) while the Socialists are strongest in Italy and the Northern European group (Sweden, Denmark, Holland, etc.) None of these has any appreciable chance in Alabama ergo, Mr. Dow's chances are very slim to non-existent. Odds Danny Sheridan is wrong on this one: 50 to 1."
-- THJ, area GOP businessman
"On the Democratic side, it's a short list. I’d say just Folsom and Sparks.
GOP is more unsettled and intriguing. Shelby is not going to want to stay in minority at his age, so watch the next election cycle and see if Dems hold on (to their majority).
Jo Bonner is probably the most talented (in the Republican camp). Jo may see himself as a Washington guy though; If not, he brings a strong Mobile base with him.
Bradley Byrne is very sharp.
Sessions may be a factor if he wants to try.
Luther may be done. I like Luther but I'm just not sure he can generate a lot of interest now. He ran a poor general election campaign and Folsom ran a very good one. Perception was that Folsom was there for the taking and Luther didn’t get it done. Does the big GOP money want to do it again, Luther vs. Folsom?
I’d say Hubbard , Rob Riley and I’d put Dow third, of those three."
-- KLR, political consultant
"The odds on Mike Dow are much too optimistic and the odds on Roy Moore are much, much too pessimistic. The others may be about right."
-- WUN, former Republican leader
"I don't have a problem with them (the odds) except for Dow. I would put him 25 to 1 at best. He is not not known statewide, will be out of any city office for five years by the time of the 2010 election. No way he could raise the kind of money Strange, Folsom and others can raise. Strange is keeping his organization alive. I do think he will run, as will Folsom. Seth really does not want the job. I think he will retire from politics."
-- MHT, lawyer/political adviser
