winnerslosers110508

Winners & Losers:

Some obvious, some not, some TBD

By Chip Drago

Mobile Bay Times

With the smoke still cloudy over the battlefields from Capitol Hill to Buck's Pocket, the Mobile Bay Times nonetheless turned to its lightning quick calvary of political assayers for a deeper insight amid the madding scene.

Who were the winners and the losers on Tuesday? The answers aren't always obvious. A silver lining in defeat or a worm in victory's apple? Both are possible.

"This morning in the light of the historic election of President-Elect (Barack) Obama, I went looking on my office bookshelf for my bound copy of the issue of the Harvard Law Review in which Obama was Editor-in-Chief, just to see again his name on the masthead, but I could not remember precisely which year it was, so I looked it up online. In doing that, I accidentally stumbled across this

excerpt on the election of Obama as Editor-in-Chief of the Harvard Law Review in 1990, from THE JOURNAL OF BLACKS IN HIGHER EDUCATION, which I found to be strikingly interesting in the light of the nature of this

election yesterday. I pass it on to you:

'Barack Obama and the Presidency of the Harvard Law Review: Journal of Blacks in Higher Education, Autumn 2004 -- Kenneth Mack: "Barack had already made an impression on both the second- and third-year student editors. If I remember properly, he had already participated in a committee that would plan the annual issue devoted to some new development in law, and was also holding forth in the forum where impressions were

formed quickly among the staff -- the editors' lounge ...

Like all of us, he was ambitious, but he never seemed that way. The African-American editors had been strategizing to elect one of our own to the presidency for several years, and it was not an easy task .... four black editors threw their hats in the ring for the election to the presidency in the winter of 1990. Seventeen editors eventually decided to run for the position.

There were many elements involved in Barack's eventual victory, but the one moment that stands out to me was a vote, taken among the editors a few weeks before the election, that divided liberals and progressives from

conservatives among the editorial staff.

The law review, like America today, was sometimes bitterly divided along political lines, although there the liberals and progressives were in the clear majority. We argued about everything from affirmative action to the politics of legal scholarship.

The conservatives lost this particular vote and many of us, myself included, were inclined to talk no further with them about it.

Yet Barack followed up the vote by publicly offering to discuss the issue further and to find common ground with the conservatives, while seeming to empathize with their

views. Not everyone on the winning side agreed with that tactic, but it paid dividends.

I remember vividly a moment during the presidential election when a conservative editor whom I had never known to support a black editor or a black author rose to pledge his firm support behind Barack, who everyone

knew was a liberal-progressive. Barack, of course, won the election handily with an incredibly broad range of supporters. It was a moment of triumph that crossed racial and political lines, as well as about every demographic line among the editors.'"

-- David A. Bagwell,

lawyer, Fairhope

"I think Artur Davis is both a winner and a loser.

He is a winner for the obvious reasons. He is close to the new president, in the House leadership, on Ways and Means, and clearly one the most powerful people in our state. He benefits greatly from the Obama voter registration on GOTV efforts.

He is a loser, however, in that the numbers (votes) for the Democrats (state wide) across the board were disappointing and much lower then he expected. Artur hoped the numbers would be much higher in this regard and that it would strengthen his position as the Democrats' frontrunner for Governor in 2010. Frankly, I am not sure this was accomplished. The down-ticket votes for the Democrats were just not there. I realize Bobby Bright won, but mathematically Artur has to be somewhat disappointed.

Jo Bonner is a winner. Not because he was re-elected (he had no opposition), but because he might be/will be more inclined to seriously consider a run for Governor in 2010. Jo's decision is easier because the D's in the House of Reps are going to be in power for many years. Toiling the minority in the House is a thankless task that can be stifling. The R's have no frontrunner. As a consequence of Jo being stuck in the minority, he can look at the Governor's race much more seriously and be taken much more seriously. This makes Bradley Byrne a loser in some respects. Jo is more popular and well known here in Southwest Alabama than Bradley. Jo would also cause Bradley fund-raising problems in the Mobile/Baldwin County area -- something he is already banking on for 2010."

-- IBC,

attorney, Mobile

"My thoughts on the Obama victory: I can now be honest with my kids. I can now truthfully tell my children they can be anything they want to be.

Don't get me wrong, I do not make it a practice of lying to my kids, but I have only told them they could be anything they want to be because I felt it was the right thing to do and to encourage them to be the best and to work hard,

but I never really meant it. I never meant it because as a child I was told that I could be anything I wanted to be by my parents and teachers but I never once believed a black person could be the President. (Hell, I didn't believe it a year ago.) I wanted to believe them and I knew that they loved me and would never steer me wrong or give me bad advice, but I NEVER believed them!

I can vividly remember my mother telling me that I could be anything I wanted to be and explaining to me that the world progresses and changes from generation to generation. I recall telling her I disagreed and would constantly plead with her to allow me and the other two black kids (my sister and brother) to transfer from the all-white private school we attended in upstate New York to go to one of the non-uniform wearing public schools we passed by on the way to school each day because this world had allowed black people to get to their highest plateaus in life (doctors, lawyers, educators, athletes, etc.) and that we didn't need any better of an education than she, an educator, and my dad, a physician, got in public school in the good ole state of Alabama.

I was wrong and I am glad to now be set straight.

Kids, Daddy is sorry for lying and I am more than glad to pay a dollar to the bad word jar and have my mouth washed out for my filthy lies!"

-- Raymond Bell,

attorney, Mobile

"I believe our party, locally, is on the ropes for the foreseeable future. The biggest loser from last night, may ultimately be (Mobile Mayor) Sam Jones."

-- INB,

Democrat, Mobile

"I am still processing things ... we have a huge banquet tomorrow night so I haven't had a chance to thoroughly evaluate the outcome. That said, the Republicans are losers because they have pathetic leadership, they

are out of touch with mainstream Americans and they have few core conservative principles they are really willing to stand on. That leaves voters no real reason to vote for them other than they are not Democrats. That is not a good campaign strategy."

-- Gary Palmer,

Alabama Policy Institute

"Seems being a strong ally of (Gov. Bob) Riley once again is costly. Jay Love paid the price for the slight Harri Anne Smith felt from the Riley/(Mike) Hubbard-dominated state party.

Smith said the AL GOP showed favoritism to Love in their primary fight and her endorsement of (Democratic nominee Bobby) Bright was certainly the difference in CD2.

Twinkle (Andress Cavanaugh) was the only loss on the statewide GOP slate, again a reflection on Riley's influence, or lack of. Twinkle's two best resume items are acting as Riley's Party chairman, and Riley's Senior Advisor. A number of GOP insiders who resent Riley's dominance of the Party machinery quietly defected, costing Twinkle."

-- TRC,

businessman, Mobile

"The post election despair by some is disheartening alone. The election brought about an historic implication for sure, but one with which we are recently familiar with here in the City of Mobile. The loss is not all grim for Republicans and I think this will actually empower the

Republican Party over the next ten years. Looking at the recent history of political pendulum swings, this was mandated to happen, regardless of the opponent.

Many folks seem to think the Republicans have been on a tear since Reagan. This is not true. Reagan might have invigorated the party, and he certainly put in place many of today's very popular platforms but 1992 was a dismal year. At that time I was producing stage shows for the

Walt Disney Company, so I looked back at history to refresh myself with the details.

Looking back to the election of 1992 when Bush 41 was removed after only one term (ironically, on economics over foreign policy). The house was controlled by the Dems. Times were certainly dark for Republicans, flying high from eight years of Reagan. But it was during this time that a recently promoted House member, one who just a few years before had succeeded Dick Cheney as the Minority Whip came into the spotlight -- Newt Gingrich, co-author of the Contract with America in 1994 which drew upon Ronald Reagan's 1985 State of the Union Address. This revival was the impetus for the Republican majorities in Congress and I believe it is this 'high' the Republicans have been riding all the way through Clinton into Bush 43.

The 1994 Contract with America team was so strong it forced Clinton's hand on the tax cuts implemented in the 90's. The cuts in spending which reduced the deficit and national debt and the organization of Republican policies which still dominate our dialog today, were re-born in this

battle. Great Republican leaders like Newt, Denny Hastert and of course our Governor Bob Riley who was a freshman Congressman on the Contract Team. From the ashes of a 1992 disaster rose a powerful phoenix of

Republican ideals, leadership and energy that took us more than 15 years to diminish.

There is no doubt that Republicans need to redefine themselves. The party is lost. When neither the Republican presidential candidate nor congressmen and senators can claim to be fiscal conservatives, we must take blame for the massive increases in government. The party must be reborn.

I always tell folks, when Republicans start talking a lot about Reagan times are not good. For the last four years, one would have thought Reagan was still alive by the amount of discussion in his name.

The fear we have today of Democrat control and what will come from that control on both ends of DC is the sign of a new beginning. History has a strange way of repeating itself and I fully believe it will again. The Democrats will attempt major changes, just as Bill and Hillary did. Socialized health care, increased taxes, government intrusion, curtailing the freedom of religion and American pride will be the issues. From these actions we will see a renewed call for tax reductions, welfare reform, shrinking the size of government and change in the power of the United Nations.

How long it takes for his plans to be implemented is a good question, and that time frame will determine the time for Republican recovery, but once these actions actually take place I am certain they will catch America's attention. Bill Clinton sounded like a really good idea to the country too, until the legislation started pouring in. Once this happens, the right Republican will step forward, frame the debate and provide a resolution.

From the ashes of our defeat will soar a Republican phoenix that will move the country's pendulum back to the

right and I predict will be stronger than Reagan."

-- Jon Gray,

Strategy, Inc.

"Regardless of one's party affiliation or feelings on who has been elected President, we in this part of the state should think about how this may impact our area. John Tyson, Jr. will be an excellent United States Attorney in this District and hopefully that office will gain some real leadership and direction."

-- JQP,

Baldwin County

"Winner: The nation.

"In the beginning, all the world was America." -- John Locke

"This morning Locke's observation is as true as ever. Obama's story is the American story and the world Is as eager for American leadership as is our nation.

Like Lincoln, Obama comes from Illinois to lead our nation at the right time in our history. The statistics tell the story -- he won in nearly all the suburbs of the major cities, had the vote of the vast majority of voters under 50 and bucked traditional Democratic voting patterns in states such as West Virginia and Missouri.

The impact of this transformation of traditional politics will unfold for all to see, but for now it's enough to feel and breathe the air of a restoration of America as a nation of hope, change and ideas."

-- Rick Kuykendall,

lawyer, Mobile

"The only thing to gather from this election is that the economy and Bush negatives have put Obama in office. People are scared about their economic future and sick of W. This will force the Republican Party to change which is a good thing. It is time for a changing of the guard in the GOP. A younger more mainstream group of leaders is going to emerge that will bring the party back. I predict a very interesting election cycle in two years."

-- G. Sage Lyons Jr.,

Huntsville

"I think an under reported story is that the Democrats picked up another House seat in Alabama. Not only did they keep Bud Cramer's seat, but with (Montgomery Mayor) Bobby Bright's win, a third Democrat is now in the Alabama House delegation.

Unknown, to me anyway, is the final result in the Supreme Court race. If Deborah Bell (Paseur) pulls this out, that will be newsworthy.

Locally, I saw nothing surprising.

Even with Obama's win, I think the Alabama vote clearly indicates that Artur Davis would have an uphill battle should he run for governor, so I wonder if a Cabinet position might be more likely -- Attorney General seems realistic and he could be in a position to be appointed to the Supreme Court, also."

-- BAR,

The Unapologetic Democrat

"I think the big loser is the National Republican Party that really needs to take a hard look at themselves. If Obama rules from the center as he should it will take the

Republicans a long time to come back."

-- ASD,

executive, Mobile

"Needless to say, we Democrats are thrilled with the national successes and saddened with the local results.

My personal feeling is: "In your face, Republicans! You had eight years to screw things up, and now you have both a Democratic President and a Democratic Congress. Watch what we can do!

It sure can't be any worse than the W years.

And it looks like Alabama will remain on or near the bottom of the list, nationally."

-- HMS,

Democrat, Mobile

"The big winners last night were Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. This is the second election in a row where the Democrats were able to gain seats in the House and Senate. Even though they did not reach filibuster proof

numbers in the Senate, the Democrats greatly increased their numbers and now have a Democrat in the Oval Office.

The big losers were obviously John McCain and the GOP. There was no way that McCain could prevail in this election given the poor economic climate in the country and the large money disadvantage he faced when Obama reversed his stance on public financing.

The GOP must regroup and address a new plan to win back seats in two years. History has shown us that Pelosi, Reid, and Obama will likely overreach and take the country too far to the left with one-party rule. The GOP has to be ready to take advantage of that when that happens."

-- JJB,

Bay Minette

"The Deep South has once again separated itself from the nation. It has reaffirmed its stand in 1964 (the Goldwater sweep in the South, the LBJ sweep in the rest of the nation).

This time 80% of Alabama's white citizens voted Republican.

The issue is black and white. Not blacks vs. whites, but the educated and the progressives vs. the ignorant, the uninformed, the selfish and self-serving, the intolerant and the arrogant. The forces of light and the forces of darkness. Just like Elvis, Roy Moore and George Wallace still live.

The election proves that education is and always has been the #1 issue in Alabama. The next time a tax bill for education is voted on, and loses miserably, everybody thinks they won.

Think again!"

-- Bob Beckerle,

attorney, Mobile

"The O.J. jury just elected our president. Goodbye EADS."

-- LC,

Mobile

"Well, it’s still like 1957 in Alabama and some of those good old conservatives have paid their dues in several ways to keeping things that way and don’t want to let go of reaping the financial rewards of the backwoods' road they have paved for their state."

-- ERE,

Texas, formerly of Mobile

"Losers.

Hillary Clinton: Obama and the clock preclude another opportunity to be President.

Europe: When they face their next crisis and then look across the Atlantic for leadership, they will most likely get little more than a smile and a wave through a closed window.

Struggling Nations in bad neighborhoods: They are on their own.

Conservative Democrats: If any are left, it will go from untenable to unbearable.

The Democrat Party: That heady, airy euphoria like being on cloud nine comes from driving over the radical leftist cliff. It will be curious to see when and where they land.

Winners.

The American People: They had a choice and they get a peaceful transition of power. However, the choice will soon be tempered by the adage, 'Be careful what you ask for.'

The United Nations: An Obama administration will defer to them often and give them renewed legitimacy.

America's Enemies: They can tie up world reactions and actions in the UN indefinitely.

The Republican Party: The GOP finally has a real and inevitable opportunity to clean house, renew their core values, and rebuild a genuine conservative movement."

-- Pete Riehm

Vice Chair, Mobile GOP

"This may be obvious but it seems to me that one of the key factors in the landslide for Obama is that he left his base the job of energizing themselves and went after independent voters in red states and counties to cut into McCain's strength and keep McCain busy defending his base.

McCain, on the other hand, in actions like his choice of VP, spent too much effort preaching to his religious conservative choir. Democrats, including Hillary supporters, had no place to go but to Obama while conservative Republicans had no place to go but to McCain. Obama remembered that; McCain forgot it."

-- Anon,

PR, Mobile

"The election of Obama/Biden moves this country forward into this new century. I believe Obama will be effective in areas that no white president could be, particularly in foreign relations. The world will view the U.S. as less aggressive and threatening. I believe our international trade will improve and that we will be a better nation as a result of this election.

An observation is that (Sarah) Palin was certainly a mistake. Too uninformed, unqualified and just not appropriate to hold national office.

I believe Obama will be a centrist, not an extreme liberal as some Democratic leaders desire. He is already choosing black, white and Asian members of his cabinet. I look forward to the years ahead. I don't believe any president could be worse than Bush."

-- John Butler,

former juvenile judge

"The election of Sen. Obama brings about a new day in America and will do more to unify this country at a time when it is so badly needed. The President-elect will bring the best of America into his cabinet and in all key positions in his administration. He will be a president for all America and that will be the key to his success. We have the most serious set of problems facing our nation in years and it will take a bi-partisan approach to governing that can only come from a person with the ability, the desire and the courage required at a time like this."

~~Jere L. Beasley,

attorney, Montgomery

"Well, as to the obvious, several expressions come to mind: The wagon has hit the bridge, The ship has hit the sand, The sh-t has hit the fan and that old, late departed bumper sticker -- Sh-t Happens. Tonight I am going to the annual meeting of the Comic Cowboys, to which I have gone for 50+ years and I can imagine the main topic for discussion and the fight over who gets what topic on their float.

As to the rest, most conducted themselves and their campaigns well and cleanly, with a few outstanding exceptions, which are nothing new and to be expected, however much you wish they wouldn't. Generally speaking, I don't intentionally watch campaign advertising or read about politics in print, unless it's really news.

The last sentence brings to mind the articles about the apparently fraudulent voter registration in Conecuh County and the same is undoubtedly true of other counties, not only in Alabama. The voting prior to election day and the looseness in handling absentee voting together are open

invitations to voter fraud and I expect that it is rampant. It has existed in the past in most parts of the State, including Mobile County, but the large majority of this has been cleaned up in the last 20/25 years, but I doubt that it will all be erased, ever.

My personal opinion is that we will see a replay of the Carter years, without the giving over the Panama Canal with no strings attached.

This morning I heard on the radio a clip from (Obama's) speech last night wherein he said that 'the financial crisis which we face now is the worst in 100 years.' That kid wasn't around in the '30s.

The out-of-control economy during the Carter Administration was unbelievable. I was in the bank at the

time, as of the lending division, and interest rates, unemployment and inflation were all climbing so fast that the market couldn't keep up. Rates on US Treasury securities were at historical highs and little or no credit

for the public was available, because of the high rates on governments. Some one hung the name 'Stagflation' on the economic problems and it stuck.

When people forget the lessons of history, they are bound to mess things up. Obama says that he is going to selectively raise taxes to get money to lend out; he needs to understand that there is no time in history where a

tax increase has done anything to a recession, except to deepen it. Roosevelt understood, as did Kennedy, Reagan and Bush the 2nd and the immediate action of each to cure the recession which they inherited was to cut taxes. Presto, the economy responded well in all instances.

One of the advantages of cutting taxes is that government income received from them goes up -- not some of the time, all of the time.

Politicians harp about the rich not paying enough. Baloney, they are paying more than their share; they are getting the most DOLLAR reduction because they were paying the most to start with. It seems to me that the top 10% of incomes pay about 70% of all the income taxes. How much blood do they want from the turnip and who will finance the job producing industries? There is an old adage about killing the goose that laid the golden egg and between Pelosi and Obama, they would willingly do that.

To think of our oil industry unable to fund research and unable to drill prospects is foolhardy. Oil company profits look big, and they are, in total dollars, but the only way to look at the profits of any company is as a percentage of sales. The government can hardly afford to stifle these, because governments -- U.S, State, County and City -- take a larger piece of the sales, both dollars and percentages, than do profits to the company. These people would do any of this so that they can get to be re-elected and tell us how to run our financial affairs and the rest of our lives.

Well, you now have gotten a good bit more than you asked for, plus a free economic evaluation of a bare few of our office holders. I think that, perhaps, Eisenhower had the right idea when he had legislation introduced

expanding the tax base, so that everyone, no matter what their income status, paid a little bit. His theory was that if everyone had something invested in the function of government, then they were much more interested in how it functioned and if you didn't work and contribute, you got no 'income tax rebate.'

Nowadays, people who were too lazy or too involved with other things to go to school, pay attention, study hard and get a job are the beneficiaries of the current thought that everyone should have an income from somewhere, even if it comes out of some one else's pocket.

The U.S. is far behind in most things in which we formerly led, mainly because of this: The dumbing down of the educational system being at the base of the problem,

the no one should be embarrassed or have their feelings hurt by flunking out. Life outside the womb or school room is not like that, it is more of a 'root, hog, or die' system.

Get a tight grip (particularly on your wallet), dig in your heels and work hard."

-- BAX,

retired, Mobile

"A few winners, a couple of losers.

1) Mark Erwin with the best leadership of any Republican Party chairman. Those ads were fantastic and gave Mobile the highest (possible) Republican showing to help all our locals win. Go Mark.

2) Mike Dean wins big with two significant challenges. Retirement guaranteed and a little comfort knowing the public is with you!

3) Stephen Nodine. 1.5 Republicans is always better than 1 (on a three-member county commission).

"Brad Warren, loser. Put himself over his party chairmanship. He lost. The party lost. Didn't win one seat in Mobile County with the largest A-A turnout ever. Brad is done."

-- WSU,

armchair analyst

"I would say that President Obama's victory speech was the best I've heard during the entire campaign. He stressed to the public that his decisions may not be

popular. He stressed that changes may take from one to more than four years. He stressed that he would attempt to be a representative or leader for all people. Winner.

What frustrated me most, was the promises made to many who are desperate for some relief, be it the war or the economy or otherwise. It's ok and understandable to be desperate, what is frustrating is knowing that this desperate individual is going to take you at face value, and you tell them you're going to make things better, using key words or phrases, such as 'if given the opportunity' to make your lie a truthful statement. Given the opportunity to the person who peels back layers of the onion, means two things -- 1) given the opportunity by a person's vote, obvious. 2) given the opportunity by the support of the other politicos who has to vote with one in order to make the promise come to pass, less obvious. The subtle catch or 'make it truth' phrases are used by many politicians, at various levels of government. Loser.

I've never intentionally tried to hurt another. I'm not perfect, as I'm a work in progress. I am more of the straight talker, and I really enjoy it when a person does not hide what they are trying to say. If I have to play games with words to get your vote, maybe I don't deserve your vote; and if you require a person to agree and make promises to all your wishes, maybe you don't deserve to have me as your servant."

-- James Gordon,

state legislator, Saraland

"This was a very difficult election cycle for the Republican Party. The President is unpopular. The financial situation is historic if anything. So, they had some set backs . They saw it coming. The party is still in good shape and can still project it's ideology.

Obama's $700 million campaign was not much help to the

local Democrats. The national Democratic party is just too liberal for the Mobile area. Seven Hundred Million Dollars is a lot of money for a $400,00 job. I have been wondering where that money came from and what do the donors expect in return. I do not think that large business donors would give money to someone who would bring the American system down. But I could be wrong."

-- Lee Roe,

Mobile

"Only the obvious is evident. The South, with two exceptions, isn't ready for a black president. Maybe this will change those attitudes, with a good performance by Obama."

-- SOD,

retired

"Winners: Don Siegelman, Jim Folsom Jr., Jeff Sessions, Mark Erwin, John Tyson Jr., organized labor.

Losers: U.S. military, local Democratic Party, Thyssen Krupp, Mobile Chamber and area economic development initiatives."

-- DAC,

amateur pundit, Semmes/Wilmer

"I think the Republicans won. Why? Because with McCain and Dole and some of the older ones now gone, a new generation of Republicans that will go back to Republican principles, something that has been buried with the compassionate conservative Bush philosophy and giving politically correct appointments to make people feel good instead of the best and brightest qualified regardless of sex or color, will emerge.

They will also have to have some party discipline. Harri Anne Smith will be interesting; if they don't kick her out of the party, then they will lose party workers and

contributors.

I think most Americans have forgotten, probably most have never lived under a Northern President. Politics of CHANGE, will have a new meaning!"

-- Bob James,

Baldwin County, contractor